Beijing remains angry, defiant and defensive as key South China Sea tribunal ruling looms
July 11, 2016
BEIJING – China has repeatedly made it clear it will not accept, recognize nor implement Tuesday’s eagerly awaited ruling from an international tribunal on the South China Sea, the hotly contested waterway that contains some of the world’s busiest shipping routes.
“Illegal, and null and void from the outset,” says the foreign ministry office.
The tribunal will not resolve the dispute over maritime sovereignty. But the question is whether the ruling — and how nations react to it — calms or inflames regional tensions, and whether it leads to more friction between China and the United States.
The Philippines took China to the International Court of Arbitration in the Hague in January 2013 after the Chinese navy seized control of Scarborough Shoal, a largely submerged chain of reefs and rocks set amid rich fishing grounds off the main Philippine island of Luzon.
Among other things, Manila wants the U.N.-appointed panel of jurists to rule on whether China’s nine-dash line — under which it claims sovereignty over almost all the islands, reefs and rocks in the South China Sea — is consistent with international law.
The United States is leading international calls for China to respect the tribunal’s decision, and the issue has become a key test of its ability to maintain its leading role in Asian security in the face of China’s rising power.
Beijing has refused to participate in the arbitration process, and instead has launched a global propaganda campaign to make its case. Foreign Minister Wang Yi was quoted as telling his counterpart John Kerry last week the process was a “farce,” while his ministry says you have to be delusional to think China will bow to diplomatic pressure to accept the ruling.
“The ruling is likely to escalate the war of words,” Yanmei Xie and Tim Johnston of the International Crisis Group wrote in a note, predicting even more intense diplomatic efforts by Beijing and Washington to win support for their positions and even a small chance of military clashes.
Some $5 trillion in commerce, roughly one third of global trade, flow through the waters of the South China Sea every year, while its fisheries account for 12 percent of the global catch and significant oil and gas reserves are thought to exist under the sea floor. Yet the waters are some of the most fiercely disputed in the world, with claims to various parts staked by Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan.
China’s nine-dash line, a version of which first appeared on its maps in 1947, loops through the vast majority of the South China Sea.
Beijing says its sovereignty claims date back hundreds of years and are “indisputable.” In the past two years it has undertaken a massive land reclamation process in the sea, turning seven reefs and rocks into nascent military outposts, with several airstrips and radar installations under construction.
The Philippines has asked the tribunal to rule whether the land features occupied by China are islands — as defined by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS) — or whether they are simply “rocks” or “low-tide elevations,” which are submerged at high tide.
Only natural (rather than artificially constructed) islands that can sustain human habitation qualify for 12-nautical miles of territorial waters and 200-nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) under UNCLOS, and any ruling in Manila’s favor would undermine China’s claim to the waters surrounding the island bases it is in the process of building.
The Philippines has also asked the tribunal to declare that China has violated UNCLOS by interfering with Manila’s fishing activities in its own EEZ, and by failing to protect the marine environment.
China says the tribunal lacks the jurisdiction to rule on Manila’s various submissions, and says it has abused its powers.
In Washington last week, former senior official Dai Bingguo derided the upcoming ruling as “nothing more than a scrap of paper,” a refrain eagerly echoed by state media here. China also argues that the Philippines had previously agreed to resolve the dispute bilaterally.
But its legal case is undermined by a key provision in UNCLOS, which states that the tribunal alone can decide if it has the jurisdiction to rule on issues before it. In October last year, the tribunal decided it indeed had jurisdiction to rule on several key issues brought by Manila. The tribunal’s decision is legally binding, but it lacks any mechanism to enforce its rulings.
It is not supposed to rule on issues related to actual sovereignty, so its decision will not resolve the disputes in the South China Sea – although it could provide some legal clarity.
Despite its efforts to dismiss and discredit the process, Beijing is certainly far from indifferent about the result, analysts said.
"Even though China says it doesn't care about the ruling, that it's only a scrap of paper, in reality it cares very much,” said Shen Dingli, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai.
Bonnie Glaser, a senior advisor for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said China’s campaign against the case shows that, contrary to popular belief, China is concerned about reputation damage. "They don’t want to be seen as violating international law,” she said.
What happens next will depend on how the key players — China, the Philippines and the U.S. — react.
The United States has already conducted several “freedom of navigation” exercises in the South China Sea, sending warships within 12 nautical miles of islands, reefs and rocks controlled by China and other claimants. It is also rebuilding military ties with the Philippines. China cites this as evidence that it is President Obama’s actions — not its island-building – that are responsible for militarizing the region.
Last week, the U.S. Navy said it had also sent destroyers to patrol close to some of the islands and reefs held by China, although those ships stayed just outside the 12-nautical-mile zone. Washington might decide to step up its patrols after the ruling.
China, meanwhile, could attempt to reinforce its de facto control by declaring an Air Defense Identification Zone over the South China Sea, under which any incoming aircraft would supposedly have to first declare their presence to Chinese authorities. Another option might be to build a new military base on Scarborough Shoal.
“If China declares an air defense identification zone in the South China Sea, the U.S. is likely to challenge it with military fly-bys,” Xie and Johnston wrote. “If the U.S. conducts more frequent and higher profile freedom of navigation patrols near Chinese-held reefs, Beijing may feel compelled to intercept or even evict U.S. vessels. The risk of military clashes is small but cannot be ruled out.”
Yet there are also good reasons for all sides to react cautiously.
China hosts a summit of the Group of 20 major economies in September, and is unlikely to want the meeting to take place amid an intense row over the South China Sea.
It is also likely to want time to gauge the reaction from Manila, where newly elected President Rodrigo Duterte has sent mixed signals over the issue.
Early in his presidential campaign, Duterte, a long-time mayor with limited foreign policy experience, implied he might be willing to soften his stance on China in return for Chinese infrastructure spending. Later, in a play to nationalist sentiment, he promised to ride a Jetski to Scarborough Shoal to plant the Philippine flag.
Since his inauguration, he has struck a more cautious tone. His challenge will be to appear strong at home to satisfy national pride, without needlessly angering Beijing.
After years of rocky relations, Duterte is likely looking for a “soft landing” said Richard Javad Heydarian, an assistant professor of political science at Manila’s De La Salle University.
"It is highly possible that it will be reluctant to use even a highly favourable verdict against Beijing."
The tribunal’s ruling is due at 0900 GMT Tuesday (5 a.m. EDT).
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