Imprisoned in China: Stern Hu.
Imprisoned in China: Stern Hu.
Jailed Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu believes Prime Minister Tony Abbott must directly raise his case with China's President Xi Jinping for him to have any chance of being released  early.
Hu's personal plea to Mr Abbott, relayed via friends and senior government figures, reflects an evolving consensus that China is returning to a style of "emperor" politics, where all significant initiatives and favours from the state must come through Mr Xi personally.
In recent communication Hu has described himself as a "prisoner of the emperor". 
Australian leaders have lobbied for lenient treatment since Hu's shock arrest on national security grounds in July 2009, at the height of the "iron ore wars". He was nevertheless sentenced to  10 years' jail for bribe-taking and industrial espionage.
Mr Abbott is understood to have squarely raised Hu's case with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in April last year, as Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard had done with counterparts before.
At the time journalists were briefed of hopes that Hu would be released on parole about halfway through his sentence, which was in July last year.
Some had believed that political resistance may have come from China's No. 3 leader, Zhang Dejiang, who is understood to have played a leading role in Hu's 2009 arrest when Mr Zhang was vice-premier responsible for the interests of state-owned steel enterprises.
But Hu and his friends in the Chinese political and industrial elite believe Mr Xi's extraordinary personal dominance means that only he can open important doors.
"Hu is convinced his case can only be unlocked by the Prime Minister talking directly with Xi," a source said.
Hu continues to do whatever he can to be a "model" prisoner, including translating reams of documents and running the prison library, while sleeping on a hard, crowded communal bed.
But his health has deteriorated, with heart problems requiring repeated hospitalisation, and so too has his morale.
Hu's disappointment has been compounded by watching others return to Australia in recent months after being arrested in similarly murky circumstances.
"He looks terrible," said a source, adding that Hu's mind remains "lucid".
These first public glimpses into Hu's thinking and conditions reflect an acceptance that his strategy of silence and compliance has not succeeded.
Fairfax Media can reveal for the first time that Hu's confession of bribery was made in response to an explicit promise that co-operation would directly lead to freedom.
"He pleaded guilty on the basis that he'd be immediately expelled to Australia," a source in contact with him says.
This news has implications for Rio Tinto, which sacked Hu for his "deplorable" bribe-taking and has remained silent about the industrial secrets that he was convicted of stealing on the company's behalf.
Last week Fairfax revealed that the mining giant's decision to move on from Hu and focus on pleasing its great customer, the Chinese Communist Party, was made in accordance with expensive advice from Henry Kissinger.  
And yesterday Fairfax reported that another Australian businessman jailed in murky circumstances, Matthew Ng, is seeking a mercy pardon after becoming the first person to be repatriated to Australia under a bilateral prisoner transfer agreement. 
Hu had been reluctant to take the transfer path lest it jeopardise hopes that he could clear his name or at the very least receive early parole. 
Mr Abbott missed an opportunity to see Mr Xi last week, choosing to skip the annual Boao Forum to focus on domestic questions.
There is unlikely to be another meeting until the annual rush of regional summits at the end of this year.