Quo Vadis, China and the Philippines
The United States is preparing to send a naval fleet to within 12 nautical miles of the illegally constructed Chinese bases in the West Philippine Sea. Japan has now decided to start rearming itself to prepare for potential combat outside its country. Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are diverting scarce resources to modernize their armed forces.
After allowing China to grab disputed territory in the West Philippine Sea, is there now an alliance of nations willing to stand up to Chinese territorial aggression? Is war inevitable?
Showdown in the West Philippine Sea
The US Navy is preparing to sail within 12 nautical miles of the seven artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago where China has illegally constructed artificial islands, air bases and lighthouses. At a press conference with the Australian foreign and defence secretaries, US Defence Secretary Ash Carter said: “Make no mistake, the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows and the South China Sea will not be an exception...We will do that in the time and place of our choosing.”
China’s protest was expected. However, the language of its protest was surprising to me. China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency issued this statement:
“[America’s] provocative attempt to infringe on China’s South China Sea sovereignty are sabotaging regional peace and stability and militarizing the waters... China will never tolerate any military provocation or infringement on sovereignty from the United States or any other country, just as the United States refused to 53 years ago [during the Cuban Missile Crisis].”
Then on September 15, Chinese Vice Admiral Yuan Yubai, Commander of the PLA North Sea Naval Fleet, told an international conference: “… the South China Sea, as the name indicates, is a sea area that belongs to China... and has done so since the Han dynasty in 206 B.C.”
There are three reasons why I find these statements disturbing. First, any statement that include phrases like “South China Sea” is clear proof that China has no intention to negotiate any territorial dispute in the West Philippine Sea. As far as China is concerned, this whole area is Chinese territory which they are prepared to defend and is not subject to any negotiation or international arbitration.
Second, it is equally disturbing that China compared the situation prevailing in the West Philippine Sea to what happened in the Caribbean Sea and the waters around Cuba 53 years ago when the United States decided to blockade the sovereign state of Cuba and imposed economic and trade sanctions on that country.
At that time, China considered itself as one of the leaders of the Third World and called the US action as an “imperialist act of aggression.” Today, China is apparently claiming that if the United States can be an imperialist power in the Caribbean, then China can be the imperialist power in the North and South China Seas. This Xi Jing Ping foreign policy is much more interventionist and nationalistic than the foreign policy pursued by Deng, former head of China.
Finally, the language of Chinese officials has become more inflammatory and confrontational. Instead of just warnings, there are now threats of military and naval actions. The main problem is that this type of threatening language could start to erode any possibility for negotiations and peaceful agreements. It might reach a stage wherein “saving face” will override the primary goal of preventing armed conflicts.
China must realize that with power comes responsibility, and the need for statesmanship. China must choose whether it wants to be the new imperialist power in Asia or the peacemaker that will ensure the rule of law in this part of the world.
Japan: A resurgent world power
Japan rose to become a global economic power after its crushing defeat during the Second World War. However, in the century before World War II, Japan was also a political, military and naval world power. It defeated Russia and invaded China; waged war on the United States; conquered East Asia; and, defeated the British Empire in Asia.
After its defeat, Japan retreated from the world scene and focused on economic recovery. It relied on the United States for protection. Professor Brahma Chellaney explained why Japan needed to rearm:
“With US President Barack Obama hesitating to impose any costs on China for these aggressive moves [in the North and China Seas], Japan’s leaders are taking matters into their own hands. Recognizing the inadequacy of Japan’s existing national-security policies and laws to protect the country in this new context, the government has established a national security council...By easing Japan’s longstanding, self-imposed ban on arms exports, boosting defense spending and asserting its right to exercise collective self defense, the government has opened the path for Japan to collaborate more actively with friendly countries and to pursue broader overseas peacekeeping missions.”
Japan is rearming itself in preparation for the increasing possibility of conflicts in Asia.
Quo Vadis, Philippines?
In the last century, it was the maintenance of a balance of power that prevented the Cold War from turning into a nuclear war. There were many “limited wars” such as those in Korea, Vietnam, Angola, and Afghanistan. It is geopolitics, and not ideologies, that determine alliances and adversaries.
It is inevitable that East Asia will be divided into two economic and security bloc of nations. In economics and trade, there will be a China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Program (RCEP) and the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) led by the United States and Japan. The Philippines intends to join the TPP.
The next step will be a formal security alliance in East Asia, similar to NATO. Geopolitical realities dictate that the Philippines will join this military alliance which will be led by the United States and Japan.
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