Ten significant moments since the last federal election that could influence the outcome this time
Here’s a look back at 10 significant moments since the last federal election and how they could influence the outcome this time around.
Layton’s death — August 22, 2011
Jack Layton was certainly a beloved leader in life, but after his death, he became something of a saint for the New Democrats. There were political advantages to this, such as using his inspiring words of “hope is better than fear” on campaign signage. But Layton’s legacy is a double-edged sword for current NDP leader Thomas Mulcair
For one thing, it’s nearly impossible to compete with a larger-than-life figure. In other words, because of Layton’s tragic death, there is a risk that the electorate has lionized him and as a result misremembers who Layton was as a politician. Layton often supported middle-of-the-road ideas, such as help for seniors and tax breaks for small business. He was not always bold or traditionally left.
Mulcair, on the other hand, has been extremely clear about where he stands on issues leading into this election. He is against Bill C-51; his party would increase taxes on corporations; he would abolish the senate and withdraw the military mission from Syria and Iraq. He has been careful to distinguish the NDP from the Liberals. But, unfortunately for him, the ghost of Layton hovers over him with every statement he makes and is plastered all over NDP campaign materials.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl DyckNDP Leader Jack Layton raises his cane as he takes to the stage in Vancouver, B.C., on June 19, 2011.
Senate expense scandals — November 2012 – still working on it
The Auditor General’s June 2015 report on the senators’ fraudulent claims said it all: “the oversight, accountability, and transparency of Senators’ expenses was quite simply not adequate.” But as we’ve watched the ballad of Mike Duffy play out, and heard Senator Nancy Ruth’s horrid tales of being offered cold Camembert, the question now is: do Canadians still care enough about this to make it an election issue?
According to an Angus-Reid poll conducted in March, about 41 per cent of Canadians would support abolishing the Senate, 45 per cent want it reformed, while only 14 per cent think it should be left as is. The take-away? Canadians do not want the status quo.
Harper could deflect the Senate question on the campaign trail by saying ‘hey, we’re not nuts about those guys either!’ But any government that wants to get rid of the Senate will still require the unanimous agreement of all provinces, as per the top court’s ruling last year. If Trudeau trots out those Senate reform ideas he’s been promising, there is the potential for this issue to influence the election period.
CANADIAN PRESS/Devaan IngrahamMike Duffy isn't the only one abusing his expense account. Whole swaths of the hospitality industry would struggle if government and corporate accounts went away.
Canada-China trade agreement — Sept. 9, 2012
The Harper administration faced heavy criticism over signing an investment treaty with China back in 2012 called the Canada–China Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (FIPA). At the time, Harper very publicly scolded former Chinese president Hu Jintao over his leadership and delayed ratifying the deal for two years, citing allegations of Beijing’s cyber spying.
Even after the treaty was ratified in 2014, the treaty was widely criticized. This was primarily because the Harper government gave Chinese investors access to Canada’s economy, but didn’t get the same rights in return. As Financial Post columnist Diane Francis put it: “[the Conservatives] have demonstrated the worst negotiating skills since Neville Chamberlain. Ottawa capitulated to China on everything.”
So what does this mean for the election? Despite the benefits of doing business with the powerful Chinese economy, there are still voters who are suspicious of Chinese investment. The Asia Pacific Foundation just released new numbers showing a vast overestimation of Chinese foreign direct investment in Canada, suggesting it accounted for 25 per cent of inflows, when it’s actually closer to 3 per cent.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian WyldCanadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper speaks with Chinese President Hu Jintao following a signing ceremony at the APEC Summit in Vladivostok, Sunday September 9, 2012.
Trudeau’s ascent April 14, 2013 (depends on whom you ask)
When Justin Trudeau won the Liberal leadership race in 2013, the hopes for him to rebuild the party were high – and the polls at the time reflected those expectations. In the week leading up to his victory, a Forum Poll for the National Post found the Liberals would win a clear majority with Trudeau as its figurehead, with 33 per cent of the vote, compared to 29 per cent for the Tories and 25 per cent for the NDP.
After the glow of his victory faded, Trudeau faced criticism for vague policy statements and gaffes, including the time he admired the virtues of China’s dictatorship during a ‘ladies only’ fundraiser in Toronto. Trudeau’s critics are now asking if he has what it takes to lead the country. And once again, the mood around Trudeau is reflected in the polls. A recent Ipsos poll ranked Trudeau in third place with 25 per cent of the public’s support nationally, compared to 34 per cent for NDP and 33 per cent for the Tories.
In response, Trudeau has made serious efforts to show that he is ready. He responded to criticisms of vagueness with his ‘32-Point Plan for Real Change’ released in June. The plan includes concrete suggestions that counter Conservative decisions, including saving home mail delivery, reinstating the long-form census and unmuzzling government scientists. In addition, Trudeau pledged that the upcoming election would be the last using the first-past-the-post voting system if he were to be elected. It’s important to remember Trudeau’s early stretch leading the polls – it could happen again.
Justin Tang / The Canadian PressLiberal leadership candidate Justin Trudeau speaks during the 2013 Liberal Leadership National Showcase in Toronto on Saturday.
Harper’s Shrinking Inner Circle (2013 – 2015)
Stephen Harper’s inner circle that led him to victory in the last election is looking much smaller today. Former Minister of Finance Jim Flaherty and Harper’s former campaign manager, Senator Doug Finley, have both died since the last election. Flaherty was known for challenging Harper on ideas he opposed and was an asset for that very reason.
So when John Baird offered his resignation as Minister of Foreign Affairs in February, it was a big blow to team Harper. With over 20 years experience in the game, Baird was one of the prime minister’s most trusted cabinet members and was a key player in fighting the war against ISIL and preparing for the next election.
Similarly, Peter MacKay’s recent decision to leave federal politics will make the election all the more difficult for Harper. As Federal Justice Minister, MacKay was a solid advisor for the prime minister. The loss is compounded by the fact that MacKay comes from a political dynasty in Nova Scotia. The Conservatives were struggling to hold on to the 13 ridings they have in Atlantic Canada and MacKay’s exit certainly won’t help them there.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian WyldFormer federal cabinet minister John Baird
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — February 2014
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk was in Ottawa a few weeks ago to meet with Stephen Harper and finalize a trade deal. For political strategists, it should come as no surprise that a photo-op with a Yatsenyuk was a smart move for Harper ahead of the election period – there is a strong Ukrainian diaspora community here in Canada, but leaked campaign documents from the 2011 election have critics suggesting that the Tories’ entire foreign policy approach to Ukraine is about courting the 1.2 million voters in Canada who identify as Ukrainian.
In fact, the Conservatives have used Russia’s activities in Ukraine to paint a picture of Justin Trudeau as a leader who is ill prepared to handle foreign policy (Trudeau apologized last year for a joke that appeared to make light of the invasion).
Canadian military support and condemnation of Russia’s invasion are important foreign policy topics, but how these issues are presented by the party leaders could influence the vote in several ridings, such as Saskatchewan’s Yorkton-Melville, where the Ukrainian population is 27.9 per cent.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian WyldCanadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper walks past Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit Thursday Sept.5, 2013 in St.Petersburg, Russia.
Fall of oil prices — August 2014-present
The rapid fall of oil has been overwhelmingly negative for the Canadian economy.
In the summer of 2014, world crude prices were at US$100 per barrel and have since fallen to about $50 per barrel today.
In the summer of 2014, world crude prices were at US$100 per barrel and have since fallen to about $50 per barrel today.
Rhys Mendes, economist for the Bank of Canada, explained that the effects are not always immediately apparent. “The energy price decline will reduce aggregate income. Indeed, even though real GDP grew by 2.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2014, the real incomes of Canadians contracted,” Mendes said in an interview with the Financial Post. “This occurred because the world price of an important export product declined. And that means a loss of purchasing power for Canadians.”
So economically, it’s mostly bad. But politically, there is the potential for this downturn to shake up the election. It’s no secret that Harper has put time and effort into Alberta’s oil sands. With jobs declining in Alberta, the disenchanted could seek a change of pace with another party.
Moving east, low oil prices and a low Canadian dollar could stand to benefit Ontario as the combination of these two things means Canadian products are more competitive in the U.S. Given that Ontario is home to key battleground ridings, this issue stands to influence the election.
Athabasca Oil Sands CorpOil operations in the MacKay River area, approximately 40 kilometres west-northwest of Fort McMurray, Alberta.
Attack on Parliament Hill — Oct. 22, 2014
On Oct. 20 of last year, a Muslim terrorist deliberately rammed his car into a pair of Canadian soldiers in Quebec, leaving one of them dead. As the country mourned the tragedy, Ottawa was hit with another attack on Parliament Hill. In the aftermath of the second attack, which killed Cpl. Nathan Cirillo, the atmosphere in the House of Commons shifted. In an unusual display of emotion, Harper crossed the floor and hugged Trudeau and Mulcair.
Once than moment of solidarity passed, it became clear that all three major parties had conflicting positions on Canada’s role in the fight against the Islamic State. The Tories have put forward Bill C-51, which Mulcair strongly opposes and Trudeau hasn’t completely rejected.
While foreign affairs are not usually something Canadians vote on, these attacks made the war against ISIL a potential domestic security issue. Many observers, such as Brian-Lee Crowley of the national public policy think tank Macdonald-Laurier Institute, say that voter reaction to all of this could alter election results.
“If people choose a narrative that fits in with their existing political prejudices, it will leave everything as it was,” Crowley explained in an interview last year with the National Post. “If on the other hand these events shake people out of their previous commitments, for one reason or another, it will have a very powerful effect.”
Handout/The Canadian PressParliament Hill shooter Michael Zehaf-Bibeau, photographed as his attack was about to begin.
Kathleen Wynne’s agenda — February 2015 – present
Kathleen Wynne’s election as premier of Ontario was a time of excitement for the provincial Liberals. After the many mishaps of Dalton McGuinty’s government, including the cancelled gas plants and the Ornge scandal, Wynne seemed like a refreshing change for the party. After a few months in the job, however, Wynne started to face public criticism over her agenda. The new sex-ed curriculum put forward by Wynne’s government has been widely protested in the province and according to the province’s own polling, 60 per cent of Ontarians do not like her plan to privatize Hydro One.
This is a problem for Justin Trudeau.
If Ontarians in key federal ridings are concerned over what their kid will learn in school or how their hydro bill might change, Trudeau suffers. With no way of marking their distaste for Wynne’s policies just yet, voters could seize the opportunity to vote against the Liberal party in the federal election. And the Tories know this. Just look at what Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre tweeted about Ontario’s plan for public pensions: “We will not help Trudeau & Wynne impose their dangerous scheme to take money from workers & their families, kill jobs & damage the economy.”
For their part, the provincial Liberals have loudly voiced their problems with Harper in the days before the election call. Finance Minister Charles Sousa and Associate Finance Minister Mitzie Hunter accused the Harper government of making the new Ontario Retirement Pension Plan expensive to implement on purpose. Sousa went as far as to say Harper is “slapping the face of Ontarians” with this move.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld/FilesKathleen Wynnesays it would be premature to set up LCBO Express Stores before the wider issue of liquor distribution has been decided.
The election of Rachel Notley — May 5, 2015
The NDP party and observers alike are making much ado of the ‘Notley effect’. Rachel Notley’s May election toppled the 43-year-old reign of the Tories in Alberta and gave rise to an epic Orange Wave. The question for the federal election is whether or not Notley’s refreshing style will boost support for Mulcair nationally.
The concentration of NDP support in Edmonton distorts the overall numbers, meaning that the Tories could still be competitive at the provincial level. If the Tories do well at the federal level in Alberta, there is still potential for Notley’s win to have a ripple effect in other provinces.
Earlier this month, Mulcair said he would borrow a few pages for Notley’s playbook, meaning he will present very specific ideas, such as raising the minimum wage for federal employees to $15. By doing this, Mulcair is aligning himself with Notley in the public eye and he is repeating what worked in Alberta.
The realities of a difficult job market could be contributing to the end of Notley’s honeymoon phase – a recent Mainstreet/Postmedia poll showed her drop 12 percentage points – but this is just one poll. There is plenty of campaigning time to see how Mulcair will play Notley’s victory to his advantage.
Nathan Denette/ The Canadian PressThe next election is still four years away, so excuse Premier Notley if she's not yet overly concerned about the polls.
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