China’s Economy Shows More Weakness

Manufacturing Data Show Continued Slowdown in Factory Activity in Chinese Economy

Workers making huangjiu, or yellow wine, a traditional Chinese alcoholic beverage, in a wine factory in Shaoxing, east China's Zhejiang province. Updated Nov. 30, 2014 11:02 p.m. ET

BEIJING—The Chinese economy continued to weaken in November as two gauges of factory activity indicated manufacturing lost momentum despite a recent cut in interest rates.

China shares rose in trading Monday morning as investors bet that the weak purchasing managers’ index numbers would prompt China’s central bank to cut interest rates further.

China’s official measure of manufacturing activity slipped to its lowest showing since March, while a private gauge compiled by HSBC and research firm Markit touched a six-month low, according to data released Monday.

“The PMI data suggests that fundamentals are still very weak,” said Macquarie Groupeconomist Larry Hu. “Investment in property and manufacturing remains weak, so the government is the only one spending,” he added. “And when government spending wanes in the winter months, the economy falls off,” in part due to cold weather affecting construction projects.

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On Nov. 21, the People’s Bank of Chinacut the one-year lending rate by 0.4 percentage point to 5.6% and the deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point to 2.75%, the first broad-based cuts since July 2012. Economists saw it as a move to breathe new life into the world’s second-largest economy and ease pressure on struggling companies.

However, economists said they don’t see much evidence yet that last month’s interest rate cut has boosted output. Even though the cost of capital is lower, banks aren’t expected to pass on the full benefit to customers, they added, and are likely to continue favoring governments and state-owned companies with the best lending terms.

“The rate cut probably isn’t enough,” said HSBC economist Julia Wang. “We think there will be more easing needed given the economic situation.”

HSBC forecast a 0.50 percentage-point cut in lending rates by the end of the first half of 2015 and a 1.50 percentage-point cut within the next year in the interest rate on reserves that financial institutions are required to hold with the central bank, Ms. Wang said.

The weaker purchasing managers index readings on Monday dovetail with weakerinvestment, industrial production, consumption and lending activity numbers in recent weeks. China’s gross domestic product grew by 7.3% in the third quarter, its slowest pace in more than five years.

China’s official PMI index fell to 50.3 in November compared with 50.8 in October, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement Monday. This is its lowest level since March and below the expectations of economists polled earlier by The Wall Street Journal. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in manufacturing activity from the previous month, whereas a reading below indicates contraction.

ENLARGE

A woman working in a factory in Lianyungang, east China's Jiangsu province, November 17, 2014.AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

 The subindexes for output and new orders showed weaker growth, while inventories of raw materials continued to contract. Although the official PMI fell in November, “it was still in positive territory, showing that the manufacturing sector is still expanding,” the statistics bureau said in a statement.

The official PMI was slightly higher than the final November reading for a competing PMI released by HSBC and data provider Markit, which came in at 50.0, a six-month low. This compares with 50.4 in October, HSBC Holdings PLC said Monday.

Analysts at CICC said in a research note they expect more weak numbers ahead based on Monday’s weaker PMI data in the face of growing deflationary pressure. On Wednesday, the government is expected to release figures for China’s nonmanufacturing PMI outlook.

China’s new home prices fell in November for the seventh straight month, data provider China Real Estate Index System reported Sunday, but the pace of decline was slightly slower for the second straight month.

Also on Sunday, the central bank released a draft plan for a long-awaited bank deposit insurance system in China, a program that economists view as a necessary step toward full interest-rate liberalization. There will be a one-month public comment period before its expected introduction early next year.

Economists said they expect Beijing to release a lower 2015 growth target than the 7.5% figure for 2014. “They have a higher tolerance for a growth slowdown,” said Mr. Hu. “But they want to make it as gradual as possible.”

—Grace Zhu, Mark Magnier and Richard Silk