Asia's Big Fear: Is America Emboldening China and North Korea?

 

 

While world attention has focused on crises in Syria, Crimea and the Middle East, the security situation in Asia has deteriorated. As North Korea pursues another of its periodic charm offensives, it appears quiescent. Yet the regime continues to refine its nuclear strike capability. It is only a matter of time before Pyongyang resumes its escalatory, provocative behavior. That it will do so is certain; the only unknowns are the timing and the form—whether it will again violate UN resolutions through nuclear and missile tests or launch another deadly attack against South Korea.

Most experts still assess that Pyongyang has not yet mastered the ability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead or deliver it via missile. Media reports habitually declare that North Korean missiles cannot yet reach the United States. Based on this benign conclusion, policy makers presume the U.S. and its allies still have several years to diplomatically constrain North Korea’s nuclear program, timidly pursue incremental sanctions, and prepare military defenses. This view has led to U.S. policy complacency toward the North Korean threat.