Excerpted from Howard Phillips Issues & Strategy Bulletin of November 30, 2005
PENTAGON DOWNPLAYS PRC MILITARY BUILDUP
"Months overdue, the Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on China’s military power is a mix of happy talk, flabby strategic musings, and sobering facts. …
"The one thing that is clear is that publication of this year’s Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China was delayed while its initial and more alarming conclusions about China’s strategic intent were toned down.
"Senior administration officials overruled the report’s authors, professional analysts, and policy advisers at the Pentagon intent on providing an unvarnished account of China’s military. And, contrary to conventional Washington wisdom, this was done not over the heads of the most senior ranks in the Pentagon but with their agreement."
EVIDENCE IGNORED
"A more accurate picture would take note of China’s noncompliance with its pledges to the World Trade Organization; its failure to use its leverage with North Korea to end Pyongyang’s game of nuclear Russian roulette; its continuing refusal to abide by human rights and refugee conventions it has signed; its less-than-stellar nonproliferation record; its use of Chinese nationalism to browbeat Japan; its refusal to cooperate with the other great powers in the Proliferation Security Initiative; its obstructionist policies on Iran, Sudan, Zimbabwe, and Burma; and of course its repeated threats to use military force to unify Taiwan with the mainland – and, if need be, engage in nuclear brinkmanship to prevent the United States from intervening to stop a forcible reunification. It is this fuller – but unstated – account of Chinese behavior that fits with the substantive heart of the report, documenting China’s rapid and dramatic improvements in military capabilities."
HOWEVER, THE FACTS SPEAK LOUDLY
"What’s new in this year’s report is the finding that China’s military buildup has begun to have serious implications not only for the cross-strait balance of power but also for the region as a whole.
"The People’s Liberation Army possesses a growing fleet of nuclear and diesel submarines, has 650-730 mobile ballistic missiles, and is working on aerial refueling for a significant percentage of its 2,600 combat aircraft."
JAPAN RECOGNIZES THE PROBLEM
"Toss in new and improved command, control, and communication systems and over-the-horizon targeting capabilities, and the picture that emerges is a China with military capabilities that are not just Taiwan-centric. While the report suggests that these capabilities ‘could pose a credible threat to other modern militaries operating in the region … over the long term, if current trends persist,’ most regional militaries are already worried. When Chinese ships and subs begin making clandestine trips into Japanese home waters – as they have – the signal being sent to Japan and the region is clear enough."
TAIWAN MAY FALL LIKE A RIPE FRUIT
"Beijing does not believe a full-fledged invasion would be necessary to accomplish its goal. Rather, the PLA leadership, according to its own doctrinal papers, thinks a combination of ballistic-missile, special-operation, and aerial strikes could be sufficient to shock Taiwan’s population and leadership into accepting Beijing’s version of ‘one China.’
"For similar reasons, China is working hard to develop the capacity to blockade Taiwan. The submarine modernization program that the report details is extensive. Eight new quiet KILO-class diesels will soon be added to the four already in the arsenal; China’s indigenous SONG diesel is now in serial production; and a new diesel submarine, the YUAN class, was launched last year. Chinese naval journals indicate a deep interest in blockading operations, and pay close attention to the vulnerabilities of Taiwan’s island economy. …"
U.S. AIRCRAFT CARRIERS TARGETED?
"China’s military knows that it must be able to prevent, or, at least severely complicate, the American Navy’s use of its aircraft carriers. To this end, as the new report spells out, China’s antiship cruise missile force is growing by leaps and bounds. It has begun to field high-end, supersonic and subsonic cruise missiles on its new destroyers, attack boats, and submarines. It has even experimented with use of maneuverable, multiple-entry MRBMs and SRBMs to hit carrier battle groups. Once China solves the problem of longer-range detection and targeting, it will pose the most serious threat to American carriers in the world. …"
PRC’S ICBMS MORE DANGEROUS THAN KATRINA
"The report also details China’s programs to upgrade its intercontinental ballistic missile force with new solid-fuel, road-mobile missiles and new sea-based, submarine-launched systems. The net effect will be a more survivable, more accurate, and more lethal nuclear strategic capability – aimed primarily at the United States. As General Zhu Chenghu, dean of China’s National Defense University, not so subtly reminded American visitors recently: Should the United States intervene in a conflict between China and Taiwan, ‘the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds … of [their] cities will be destroyed by the Chinese’ nuclear weapons."
BEIJING PREPARES TO NEUTRALIZE AND DEFEAT U.S. DEFENSE OF TAIWAN
"Combine the PLA’s fascination with ‘carrier killing,’ its ability to degrade severely the operational utility of U.S. air bases in Japan through missile strikes, its aggressive pursuit of space and counterspace capabilities, and its upgraded nuclear arsenal, and you have a military that believes it has or is close to having the means to make any American president think twice before going to Taiwan’s rescue. …"
HISTORICALLY, CAPABILITIES OFTEN BECOME INTENTIONS
"But rather than face the facts presented in the report about the character and scope of China’s military buildup, the tendency in the senior ranks of the administration is to wash over them with sound bites about our relationship with China being ‘good but complex.’ Or worse.
"The day after the report was issued, in response to a question about the cross-strait military balance, Marine general Peter Pace, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said, ‘There’s lots of countries in the world that have the capacity to wage war,’ but ‘very few have the intent to do so. … There’s absolutely no reason for us to believe there is any intent on [China’s] part.’ Absolutely? …
"General Pace had better hope his statement doesn’t go down in history alongside George Tenet’s now infamous, ‘It’s a slam dunk, Mr. President.’ " Source: Gary Schmitt and Dan Blumenthal, The Weekly Standard, August 8, 2005, pp. 14-16
CHICOMS MAY MILITARILY DOMINATE HIGHER GROUND OF SPACE
"China’s second manned space launch has ignited a new round of debate over the implications of the PRC’s burgeoning space capabilities. ‘China is serious in investing’ in space capabilities that have ‘significant military applications in the future,’ retired Air Force China specialist Mark Stokes tells Voice of America. ‘Space assets, as well as countering … the U.S. use of space or other countries’ use of space, are important force multipliers that can help to even the playing field when you are going up against a technologically superior adversary.’ According to Stokes, the space launch constitutes ‘a stepping stone for a longer-range program to make them a significant player in military space in the future.’ — October 12" Source: Ilan Berman, China Reform Monitor, 10/20/05
Excerpted from Howard Phillips Issues & Strategy Bulletin of February 28, 2005
CONDI OMITS RED CHINA FROM HER LIST OF TYRANNIES
"Condoleezza Rice lists ‘outposts of tyranny,’ but Communist China is missing: According to Secretary of State-designate Condoleezza Rice, there are six ‘outposts of tyranny’ (Washington Times): Stalinist North Korea, Iran, Burma, Belarus, Cuba and Zimbabwe. As for Communist China, Rice preferred ‘building a candid, cooperative and constructive relationship with China that embraces our common threats but still recognizes our considerable differences about values’ (Cybercast News). Never mind that the Communists have several economic and/or military ties to all six ‘outposts,’ and that their treatment of their own people qualifies for nothing but tyranny." Source: China_e_lobby News of the Day, 1/19/05
TRADE DEFICITS FUND BEIJING MILITARY SPENDING FOUR TIMES OVER
"Some confusion on the U.S. trade deficit with Communist China: John E. Tamny, an infrequent National Review Online columnist, takes on those of us who are worried about the massive trade deficit with Communist China (which may pass $150 billion for 2004 once all the data is in). Tamny’s economic arguments aside, he doesn’t even deign to discuss the fact that said trade deficit (the largest bilateral imbalance on the planet) is enough to fund the Communists’ official defense budget more than four times over – and their real defense budget more than twice." Source: D.J. McGuire, china_e_lobby@yahoo.com, News of the Day, 1/10/05
ISRAEL SURREPTITIOUSLY AIDS CHICOM MILITARY TO THE DETRIMENT OF THE U.S.
"Israel’s persistent clandestine military dealings with China have created waves with the U.S., reports International News Services. Israel has reportedly concealed from Washington an upgrade of a major weapons system it sold to China more than a decade ago. By assisting in upgrading China’s weapons system, Israel violated its commitment not to transfer U.S. technology to China without Washington’s permission. Israel is China’s second-largest arms supplier, after Russia. Although diplomatic relations between Israel and China were established only in 1992, military ties go back to the early 1980s. Until formal diplomatic ties were established in the early 1990s, the nation’s military relationship was covert. Israel sold approximately US$4 billion worth of arms to China during the covert relationship.
"During the 1990s, while much of the West penalized Beijing following the Tiananmen Square Massacre, the Sino-Israel military relationship grew rapidly. After Israel was pressured by the U.S. to scrap a $250 million deal to sell China the Phalcon, an airborne radar system, the military relationship soured. Washington claimed that providing Beijing access to the technology would upset the military balance between China and Taiwan and threaten U.S. interests in the region. When the U.S. Congress threatened to cut the $2.8 billion it gives Israel annually if the deal went ahead, Israel buckled and scrapped it.
"For years, the U.S. government has expressed concerns over Israel illegally transferring technology to China. During the Gulf War, the U.S. gave Israel Patriot Missiles as protection against Iraqi Scud missiles. In 1992, a U.S. intelligence report revealed that soon after the end of the Gulf War, Israel had sold Patriot anti-missile data to China. Washington has also alleged on several occasions that Israel violated agreements by exporting to China restricted U.S. technology it buys with yearly U.S. subsidies. This was the case with the largely U.S.-funded Lavi fighter-plane program, the technology of which Israel passed to Beijing. China’s F-10 fighter jet is believed to be almost identical to the Lavi.
"In 2002, a deal for Israeli communication satellites was signed with the United States. Early this year, an Israeli delegation went to China for talks on rebuilding military ties. Beijing’s relationship with Israel has enabled it to acquire ‘dual-use technology’ that the U.S. and Europe have been reluctant to provide. [December 21]" Source: Al Santoli, American Foreign Policy Council’s China Reform Monitor, 1/12/05
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