Toronto’s divide-and-conquer conservatives doomed to split the vote and hand Olivia Chow the mayor’s job
Clockwise from top left: Toronto Mayoral candidates John Tory, Rob Ford, David Soknacki and Karen Stintz and NDP MP OLivia Chow, centre. Instead of taking on the left, the Tory/Stintz/Ford/Soknacki forces will bash one another into losing, minority positions, Terence Corcoran writes.
Comment
And so now it is official: John Tory, hardcore squishy centrist, will join like-minded middle-of-the-roaders Karen Stintz and David Soknacki in a political battle with Rob Ford for the hearts, minds and wallets of Toronto voters who are on the conservative side of the political spectrum.
In other words, ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce these candidates for mayor of Toronto as the Olivia Chow Mayoral Election Committee. Ms. Chow is sitting out in left wing, officially silent but apparently set to announce her candidacy soon, now no doubt elated by the news that Mr. Tory and Ms Stintz are now also running to lead Canada’s largest city.
My bet is that nobody else on the left will enter the race, or at least nobody of consequence, setting the stage for Ms. Chow to swoop into city hall as Toronto’s next mayor. All she needs is maybe 41% of the vote to win, leaving the centrists and right-of-centre candidates squabbling among themselves, splitting their potential vote four ways. At this point, a good guess would be Tory at 22%, Ford at 20%, Stintz at 7% and Soknacki at 4% and the usual gaggle of no-names picking up the rest.
That’s really just a guess, more to illustrate the point than predict the final results. Anything can happen between now and October in a first-past-the-post contest. But the point is that the left, writhing in out-of-office agony for the last few years, is (I think) too smart to get into divisive splitting of its own vote.
Backed by the unions and other entrenched NDP factions that hold hammerlocks on downtown power bases, the left is united, one single party behind a single cause that will be easy to articulate as an anti-Ford, anti-right-wing coalition, a force for good in a city that needs to beat back the Ford Nation craziness.
The Olivia Chow Mayoral Election Committee is playing right into this scenario. While the left will be running to win, the conservative candidates will be running divide-and-conquer campaigns against their own diverse forces. Instead of taking on the left, the Tory/Stintz/Ford/Soknacki forces will bash one another into losing, minority positions.
It’s already started, with Mr. Ford attacking Mr. Tory, Mr. Soknacki blasting Mr. Ford, Ms. Stintz angling for position against the others. Toronto’s for-hire political operatives, loyal to no one, are jumping aboard the different campaigns, ready to wipe one another out before the full election is even underway.
Centrist Torontonians should know that Toronto is not a naturally conservative town. Post amalgamation, the city has tilted to the left. David Miller won with 57% of the vote in 2006 in a no-contest battle with Jane Pitfield. In 2003, Mr. Miller collected 43% against John Tory, but only because fellow leftist Barbara Hall was too stubborn to get out the race. She took 9% of the votes that would otherwise have gone to Mr. Miller, giving the left a solid majority.
Rob Ford’s big 2010 victory came with only 47% of the total vote. Theoretically, Rob Ford could have lost to George Smitherman (at 35%) if Joe Pantalone had not held on to split the left and collect 12% of the vote.
Now the right seems set to split the vote, handing the mayor’s job to Ms. Chow, who will run hard on a Remember Jack Layton platform and the need to get back to the gravy train.
Toronto, in other words, is politically divisible into two, with the mayor’s job going to the side that can avoid ripping itself apart.
One reason for the multiple-candidate scramble is the lack of political parties at the municipal level, a structure that would impose at least some discipline on the mayoral contests. If Toronto had a Toronto Civic Party that embraced the city’s centre/right factions, the current flock of candidates might have been whittled down to one strong contender representing a more conservative view of city government. At a convention, they might have turfed out Rob Ford, or defeated John Tory — who knows?
Instead of holding a party convention, Toronto’s conservatives (fiscal discipline, reduced micro-interventionism, focus on core responsibilities) are set to hold a self-flagellating popularity contest in the midst of the election, a contest that loses sight of what should be the real objective: beating back the left.
Another theoretical option is a better electoral system for mayor structured around run-off votes until one candidate gets a clear majority. It would drag the election period out, and Ms. Chow might still win such a vote, but at least it would be a straight contest rather than a victory created by default as the opposition splits votes in all directions.
And of course the race could also tighten between now and October. Ms. Stintz and Mr. Soknacki may well drop out. But that would still leave John Tory and Rob Ford slashing and burning their way to defeat, splitting the conservative vote and opening the way for Olivia Chow to skate right through to the mayor’s office.
National Post
tcorcoran@nationalpost.com
THE MAYORAL CONTENDERS
THE MAYORAL CONTENDERS
It’s easy to run for mayor of Toronto. All you need is $200 (a price that has stayed the same since 2006, at least). Canadian citizens aged 18 or older who are residents of Toronto can run. Still, if you live in, say, Burkina Faso, and you own or rent property here (or your spouse does) you can run for mayor. With the bar set so low, it’s perhaps not surprising that 32 candidates have registered to run for mayor: 30 men and two women. Registration for the on Oct. 27 vote is at the Toronto Elections counter, on the back of the ground floor at city hall, or at the elections warehouse, which is at 89 Northline Road in East York. The National Post’s Peter Kuitenbrouwer offers a brief reminder of the main contenders, in the order in which they registered:
Mayor Rob Ford
The incumbent was the first in, registering on Jan. 2 at 8:31 a.m. A son of Etobicoke, Mr. Ford, 44, listed Deco Labels & Tags, the family business, as the mailing address in his nomination papers, and his email address at Deco. The mayor, a married father of two, appointed two people as his agents: David Garland and his big brother, Councillor Doug Ford. The mayor, a city councillor since 2000, won in 2010 with the slogan “Respect for Taxpayers.” This year his slogan is “Ford More Years.”
The incumbent was the first in, registering on Jan. 2 at 8:31 a.m. A son of Etobicoke, Mr. Ford, 44, listed Deco Labels & Tags, the family business, as the mailing address in his nomination papers, and his email address at Deco. The mayor, a married father of two, appointed two people as his agents: David Garland and his big brother, Councillor Doug Ford. The mayor, a city councillor since 2000, won in 2010 with the slogan “Respect for Taxpayers.” This year his slogan is “Ford More Years.”
David Soknacki
He registered on Jan. 6 at 10:17 a.m. Mr. Soknacki, born, raised and living in Scarborough, served as a councillor in 1994-97 and 1999-2006. He also served five years as chair of the Board of Downsview Park, until the government of Canada dissolved the board. Since leaving politics, Mr. Soknacki, a married father of one, has concentrated on running his flavour extraction business, Ecom Food Industries of Markham. Among his slogans so far: “David vs Gridlock” and “David vs Bad Math.”
He registered on Jan. 6 at 10:17 a.m. Mr. Soknacki, born, raised and living in Scarborough, served as a councillor in 1994-97 and 1999-2006. He also served five years as chair of the Board of Downsview Park, until the government of Canada dissolved the board. Since leaving politics, Mr. Soknacki, a married father of one, has concentrated on running his flavour extraction business, Ecom Food Industries of Markham. Among his slogans so far: “David vs Gridlock” and “David vs Bad Math.”
John H. Tory
The now former Newstalk 1010 radio host registered on Monday at 8:36 a.m., listing Michael Wilson, the former federal finance minister, as his agent. A true blueblood and a lawyer, Mr. Tory, a father of four, named his son John Tory; his grandson, also John Tory, is the sixth John Tory in the Toronto line. The candidate gave as his mailing address the condo he shares with his wife on Bloor Street. Mr. Tory has led the Progressive Conservative party of Ontario and headed CivicAction, the Toronto-boosting organization. This will be his second bid for the mayoralty, having lost to David Miller in 2003.
The now former Newstalk 1010 radio host registered on Monday at 8:36 a.m., listing Michael Wilson, the former federal finance minister, as his agent. A true blueblood and a lawyer, Mr. Tory, a father of four, named his son John Tory; his grandson, also John Tory, is the sixth John Tory in the Toronto line. The candidate gave as his mailing address the condo he shares with his wife on Bloor Street. Mr. Tory has led the Progressive Conservative party of Ontario and headed CivicAction, the Toronto-boosting organization. This will be his second bid for the mayoralty, having lost to David Miller in 2003.
Karen Stintz
The three-time city councillor registered on Monday at 10:05 a.m. Born in Toronto, she spent her first three years in the United States before moving to Toronto, where she grew up since. On top of her undergraduate work, she holds a journalism degree from Boston University and a master’s in public policy from Queen’s University. A cyclist with a winning smile, she lives in her north Toronto ward with her husband, two children and two dogs. First elected in 2003, Ms. Stintz became chair of the TTC after winning a third term in 2010. She has resigned as TTC chair to run for mayor.
The three-time city councillor registered on Monday at 10:05 a.m. Born in Toronto, she spent her first three years in the United States before moving to Toronto, where she grew up since. On top of her undergraduate work, she holds a journalism degree from Boston University and a master’s in public policy from Queen’s University. A cyclist with a winning smile, she lives in her north Toronto ward with her husband, two children and two dogs. First elected in 2003, Ms. Stintz became chair of the TTC after winning a third term in 2010. She has resigned as TTC chair to run for mayor.
The others
Among the 28 other candidates for mayor — ranging from Said Aly to Troy Young — is Norm Gardner, of Willowdale. Mr. Gardner served from 1976 through 2000 as a North York councillor, Metro councillor and Toronto councilllor. He has come out of retirement to run for mayor, registering on Jan. 30 at 2:16 p.m. “Spend it wisely,” seems to be his campaign slogan. Rounding out the list are a man whose real name is Al Gore, and Richard Underhill, the Juno-Award winning saxophone player whose band, The Shuffle Demons, had a hit with their ode to a transit service that has been replaced by a streetcar: “Spadina Bus.”
Among the 28 other candidates for mayor — ranging from Said Aly to Troy Young — is Norm Gardner, of Willowdale. Mr. Gardner served from 1976 through 2000 as a North York councillor, Metro councillor and Toronto councilllor. He has come out of retirement to run for mayor, registering on Jan. 30 at 2:16 p.m. “Spend it wisely,” seems to be his campaign slogan. Rounding out the list are a man whose real name is Al Gore, and Richard Underhill, the Juno-Award winning saxophone player whose band, The Shuffle Demons, had a hit with their ode to a transit service that has been replaced by a streetcar: “Spadina Bus.”
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