Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Philippine Leader Urges International Help in Resisting China’s Sea Claims

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Benigno S. Aquino III, the Philippine president. David Hogsholt for The New York Times
MANILA — President Benigno S. Aquino III of the Philippines called on Tuesday for nations around the world to support the Philippines in resisting China’s assertive claims to the seas near his country, drawing a comparison to the West’s failure to support Czechoslovakia against Hitler’s demands for the Sudetenland in 1938.
Like Czechoslovakia, the Philippines faces demands to surrender territory piecemeal to a much stronger foreign power and needs more robust foreign support for the rule of international law if it is to resist these demands, President Aquino said in a 90-minute interview in the wood-paneled music room of the presidential palace.
“If we say yes to something we believe is wrong now, what guarantee is there that the wrong will not be further exacerbated down the line?” he said. Later, he added, “At what point do you say, ‘Enough is enough?’ Well, the world has to say it. Remember that the Sudetenland was given in an attempt to appease Hitler to prevent World War II.”
Mr. Aquino’s remarks are among the strongest indications yet of alarm among Asian heads of state about China’s military buildup and territorial ambitions, and the second time in recent weeks that an Asian leader has volunteered a comparison to the buildup of tensions before world wars.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan caused a stir in Davos, Switzerland, when he noted in January that Britain and Germany went to war in 1914 even though they had economic ties — much as China and Japan have now.
Japan has been locked in an increasingly tense standoff with China over uninhabited islands in the East China Sea. Even South Korea, which has been quieter about Chinese claims, expressed alarm last year when Beijing announced that it had the right to police the skies above a vast area of ocean, including areas claimed by Seoul and Tokyo.
While China’s moves to claim rocks, shoals and fishing grounds off the coast of the Philippines in the South China Sea have been less high-profile, the Chinese have moved faster there.
The Philippines already appears to have lost effective control to China of one of the best-known places of contention, a reef named Scarborough Shoal, after the Philippine forces withdrew during a standoff with China in 2012. The withdrawal as part of an American-mediated deal in which both sides were to pull back while the dispute was negotiated. But Chinese forces remained.
Mr. Aquino said he thought the Philippines and the United States were very close to a long-delayed deal that would allow more American troops to rotate through the Philippines, enhancing his country’s security. “We are very optimistic that will happen,” he said.
The deal would also aid the United States in its much-discussed rebalance toward Asia, where it hopes to retain a strong influence despite a rising China. But so far, the deal has been a controversial subject in the Philippines among the political elite, whose memories of the country’s past as an American possession make them wary of closer military ties.
The Philippines will not renounce any of its possessions in the sea between it and China, Mr. Aquino said in the interview.
Beijing has repeatedly ruled out accepting any United Nations arbitration or multilateral discussions, preferring bilateral talks with individual countries in Southeast Asia, an approach that allows Chinese leaders to bring greater pressure to bear.
China contends that centuries-old maps show that it had an early claim to practically the entire South China Sea, down to the coast of Malaysia on the island of Borneo. It is trying to use its large and growing fleet to exercise effective control over reefs and islands in the sea, which could strengthen its legal position.
Despite the challenge from China, Mr. Aquino said he was reluctant to increase military spending. “I’m not sure if I would be willing to sacrifice the social concerns to try to improve the military capabilities,” he said.
While China has been improving its military, he said, the last flight by a Philippine fighter jet was in 2005 by a plane dating from before the Vietnam War, while most of the country’s tiny naval and coast guard fleet dates from World War II.
Mr. Aquino has focused much of his energy in office on issues like keeping students in school longer, tailoring the educational system more closely to the needs of the labor market for technical skills and improving infrastructure. Political analysts say that his administration appears to have had less of the corruption that has dogged previous governments of the Philippines, and as a result, for example, the country has been able to pave more roads per million pesos in spending (about $22,000) than before. That is important in a country said to have some of the worst roads in Southeast Asia, an impediment to economic growth.
Partly because of the changes he has led, all of the major credit rating agencies now give the Philippines an investment grade rating. But Mr. Aquino is prevented by law from seeking re-election when his single six-year term expires in 2016, raising uncertainty about the future.
The difficulties with China extend beyond the arguments over the South China Sea. The Hong Kong government, with enthusiastic backing from the Chinese Foreign Ministry in Beijing, plans to stop allowing 14-day visa-free visits by Filipino diplomats and officials starting Wednesday. The sanctions are part of a long-running demand by Hong Kong that the Philippine national government apologize for a botched hostage rescue attempt in 2010 in Manila in which eight Hong Kong citizens were killed.
In his first public response to the sanctions, Mr. Aquino said he had no plans to apologize, saying that this could create a legal liability and noting that China had not paid compensation to the families of Filipinos who had died in episodes on the mainland.
A lifelong bachelor at 53, Mr. Aquino lives in a small cottage behind the presidential palace instead of in the luxurious palace itself. He said that he tries to relax before going to sleep each night either by listening to music, often jazz, or by reading quarterly military journals, often about World War II.
While recently reading about the predicament of Czechoslovakia’s leaders in the late 1930s, he said, he saw a parallel “in a sense” to his own problems now in facing challenges from China. Appeasement did not work in 1938, he noted; within six months of the surrender of the Sudetenland, Germany occupied most of the rest of Czechoslovakia.
The Philippines, he said, sees that history as a cautionary tale and is determined not to make similar concessions of its own.

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