Bill Gertz:The China Threat

Friday, June 22, 2007

Bill Gertz on The China Threat

EDITOR'S NOTE: The debating society Intelligence Squared US held a session last month on the motion: "Beware the dragon: A booming China spells trouble for America." Bill Gertz spoke for the motion. Excerpts of his remarks follow. Gertz, 55, is a defense and national security reporter for The Washington Times and the author of five books, including “The China Threat: How the People's Republic Targets America,” (Regnery) which was published in November 2000.


I’ve identified what I call 11 sources of trouble for the United States from China. The first is China’s military buildup. Number two is the danger of war over Taiwan. Number three is expansionism over energy resources. Number four is the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missiles. Number five is massive intelligence operations to steal US secrets and technology. Number six is influence operations and so-called money diplomacy. Number seven is unfair trade practices, including currency valuation manipulation. Number eight, intellectual property theft. Number nine, human rights abuses. Number 10, religious repression. And number 11, environmental degradation and global warming. 

To start with, the most serious trouble for America from China is China’s military buildup. On January 11th of this year, China conducted an unprecedented anti-satellite missile test. They fired a missile that traveled through space and hit a low Earth orbit satellite, a Chinese weather satellite, destroying it and creating 16,000 pieces of debris, which pose a threat to other satellites.

US official were shocked by this development because US intelligence estimates of China’s military have been stating for years that China is 10, 15, maybe 20 years behind the United States ... so far behind that there is no way China’s military could pose a threat. 

What the Chinese ASAT [anti-satellite] test showed was that China is not seeking to follow the US missile for missile, ship for ship, submarine for submarine. They’re going after niche weapons, they’re trying to leap ahead with special technology, and they’re doing this in a number of key areas, one of which is anti-satellite weapons. 

Officials in Washington estimate that by, within the next six years, China will have the capability of destroying all US low Earth orbit satellites. Basically, this could be the modern day equivalent of a space Pearl Harbor against the United States if there were a conflict over Taiwan. 

Regarding Taiwan, the danger of war over the Taiwan Strait continues. China has not renounced its plan to use force to retake the island. It is applying pressure, across the board to pressure this democracy. It is succeeding in many ways to influenceing US policy in ways that would diminish support for this traditional ally. 

The danger of China expanding to gain resources is kind of a new source of trouble that has been identified by some studies in the Pentagon one of which was called the “string of pearls strategy.” It shows that China is developing a string of pearls, bases, alliances along a path going from the Middle East, where much of its oil comes from, all the way to China. There are concerns that because energy is so integral to China’s modernization effort, that China at some point will have to expand militarily, perhaps the Russian Far East, perhaps Southeast Asia, to take over places that have valuable oil and gas resources. 

Intelligence operations. This is a subject that I have focused on in my recent book. It also highlights the case of Chi Mak, who was a Chinese intelligence agent, recently convicted in California of being an unregistered agent of the Chinese government. It’s part of a mushrooming spy case, more of which will be coming out in the coming weeks and months, which shows that China has been very successful in stealing some of the most advanced US weapons technology, including the next generation quiet electric drive for our war ships, secrets about our submarine force, and as well as the AEGIS battle management system, which is the heart of the, the modern Navy. 

As for influence operations, this is another area where China has been extremely successful in influencing policies against the United States. We see this through what one Chinese defector called “money diplomacy,” buying up former US officials, and using those officials to lobby against policies that China doesn’t like. This is having a deleterious effect on the US economy and US policy because it’s preventing the US from truly understanding the directions and goals of China’s military modernization and its general modernization as well. 

Representative Randy Forbes, the chairman of the China caucus in the House of Representatives estimates that China spends upwards of $100 million annually on these influence operations. 

Unfair trade practices and currency issues, as well intellectual property theft. These issues are fairly well known, but I would like to highlight one issue surrounding the whole trade question. The main policy for the US towards China has been to trade with China as a way to seek a liberalized Chinese government and political system. Unfortunately, the idea of trading with China as a liberal, a liberalizing factor is not working. In fact, just the opposite is happening. Many feel that China’s military buildup is being benefited by its economic growth, but yet we have seen little or no political reform in China. This is a very serious source of trouble for the United States.