DOMINIC SANDBROOK: Forget Greece. It's the financial crisis in China that could plunge the world into meltdown
As historians know, the events that really matter in the long run often go almost unnoticed at the time. The last few days offer a very worrying example indeed.
While the attention of the British public was fixed on the tragicomic shambles of the Labour leadership contest and the shocking refugee chaos on the Greek islands, perhaps the greatest economic success story in modern world history was grinding to a shuddering halt.
In Beijing, China’s reclusive powerbrokers were taking a decision that could have devastating consequences, for when the world’s financial markets opened yesterday, it was to the news that China had devalued its currency for the second successive day.
A clerk counts Chinese 100 yuan banknotes at a branch of China Construction Bank in Hai'an, Jiangsu province. China devalued its currency on Tuesday after poor run and announced another cut yesterday
Having already cut the value of the yuan by almost 2 per cent on Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China announced yet another cut yesterday, sending shock waves through the world economy.
‘Investors should prepare for a tidal wave of deflation from Asia,’ said one analyst at the banking giant Societe Generale. ‘This is the start of something big, something ugly.’
Worry
This week’s Spectator magazine agrees. ‘Forget Greece,’ it says, ‘this could be the biggest financial story of the year.’
In Washington officials were furious. One American economist declared: ‘China’s trade war with America could be huge.’
Meanwhile, firms that rely on Chinese demand saw millions wiped off their share prices. Apple saw its stock plunge by 5 per cent because China is the world’s biggest consumer of smartphones.
Currency devaluations are rarely the stuff of front-page headlines and you might be forgiven for wondering why ordinary British readers should be worried about the value of the yuan.
Given China’s importance in the world economy, however, the news should worry everybody who works for a British exporter, buys imported goods or wears Chinese-made clothes — which is to say, everybody.
Few of us, I suspect, have really come to terms with the sensational transformation in China’s international image and economic importance that has occurred over the past few years.
Only a generation ago, it remained a vast, poor, mysterious nation, sealed off from the rest of the world behind the so-called Bamboo Curtain.
Today, however, you need only to look around to see the evidence of its dramatic revival.
From children’s toys to consumer electronics, cheap Chinese exports have become a staple of the worldwide economy, reflecting a nation in the midst of sensational economic expansion.
Ever since China’s authoritarian Communist rulers embraced their version of capitalism at the end of the Seventies, the world’s most populous country has been profoundly changed.
At the turn of this century, its annual growth rate was 11 per cent, utterly changing the look, sound and atmosphere of its great cities.
The results have been amazing. Not only have millions of Chinese been lifted out of poverty, but the sleeping Asian giant, with a population of 1.4 billion, now has a genuine claim to be one of the planet’s two major superpowers.
Crucially, the Chinese now exercise immense economic clout.
China is putting up some of the cost of our new nuclear reactor at Hinkley Point (pictured: artist's impression)
While the Americans were running up vast debts under the calamitous administration of George W. Bush, it was the Chinese who quietly bought them up, effectively giving them a chokehold on the Western economy.
In resource-rich Africa, it is the Chinese who are the new empire-builders, offering aid and support in return for valuable commodities.
Even in Britain, Chinese money now wields extraordinary influence.
Among its investments here are substantial stakes in Barclays Bank, BP and Thames Water.
They have invested in everything from a 10 per cent stake in Heathrow to a majority holding in Weetabix.
And, of course, China — to the concern of many — is putting up some of the vast cost of our new nuclear reactor at Hinkley Point, giving them a foothold in our sensitive nuclear industry.
Yet after a long period of break-neck expansion, with annual growth rates regularly exceeding 7 per cent, a figure that Western economies could only dream of, there have been signs that the wheels were beginning to come off.
Chinese house prices have stalled, while visitors report that construction projects have been suspended, building sites are deserted and factories have fallen silent.
The headquarters of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in central Beijing, China
A week ago, figures showed that Chinese factory activity was at its lowest level in two years, while the prices paid to domestic producers there have fallen for 40 months in a row.
Across the world, financiers and politicians quietly trembled at the prospect that the great economic miracle might be stuttering to a halt. But nobody expected this week’s dramatic developments.
For ordinary British families, a devalued Chinese currency might seem like nothing to worry about. After all, it will make Chinese exports much cheaper, which sounds, on the surface, like a fine idea.
However, as economic analysts have pointed out, China’s devaluation almost certainly marks the start of a race to the bottom.
In the next few weeks, other Asian exporters may well follow suit, slashing the value of their currencies in a desperate bid to compete.
Where, you wonder, would that leave the ailing euro or indeed the pound? And what would be the consequences for British manufacturers, who are already struggling but whose exports to China will now cost more?
Chilling
The prospect of a global currency war is a genuinely chilling one. Not only would it send the stock market into meltdown (with dire consequences for ordinary Britons’ savings, pensions and house prices) but it would also choke off the West’s feeble economic recovery.
It is no wonder, then, that American politicians have reacted with unbridled fury. Just as their economy picks up, Chinese exports become even cheaper, undercutting U.S. manufacturers whose exports to China will now be more expensive.
Hoping for an economic revival, the U.S. Federal Reserve, like the Bank of England, had been planning to begin raising interest rates, bringing much-needed relief to millions of savers. Now that seems an unlikely prospect as this chill wind blows in from the East.
China’s unilateral devaluation has stoked the flames of American anti-Chinese feeling. Donald Trump (pictured) has made no secret of his antipathy to the Asian giant
Worse, China’s unilateral devaluation has stoked the flames of American anti-Chinese feeling, which seems certain to play a large part in the forthcoming presidential election.
It is no accident that the loudest and angriest criticisms have come from the outlandish populist billionaire Donald Trump, who, much to the horror and despair of sensible observers, has shot to the front of the Republican presidential pack.
Mr Trump has made no secret of his antipathy to the Asian giant. ‘China has rebuilt itself with the money it has sucked out of the United States and the jobs that it has sucked out of the United States,’ he said yesterday.
‘They keep devaluing their currency until they get it right. They are doing a big cut in the yuan and that is going to be devastating for us... they are just destroying us.’
Damage
If this is, as I suspect, the sign of things to come, then we ought to be very concerned indeed, for if China’s stupendous economic growth is indeed grinding to a halt, then the consequences for the world economy could be devastating.
If, as seems equally likely, we are in for a long and acrimonious currency war, then it could do immense damage not just to China’s reputation within Asia but also to its relationship with its key trading partner and greatest rival, the United States.
Just a few weeks ago, the world was treated to a rancorous war of words over disputed areas of the South China Sea, with Chinese officials angrily condemning the military preparations of the Americans’ chief regional ally, Japan.
And if the Chinese economic picture darkens, then it is very easy to imagine relations entering a long, bitter deterioration, raising the political temperature in East Asia and dragging the Americans into a prolonged diplomatic stand-off with their chief global rivals.
For years, historians and commentators have been predicting that the 21st century would be dominated by the competition between these two great powers.
As the yuan tumbles, the stock market slides and the world economy tips back towards recession, I fear we may soon discover if they were right.
TUESDAY, JANUARY 3, 2017
Thoughts [mine]
Thoughts [mine]
Peace keeping...LOL
China buys up Britain...
China buys up Australia
China buys up Canada
China buys up the US
Our ignorant [corrupted] PM's are handing over the keys to our [Canadian Sovereignty & Security] our kingdom and the jewels in the crown, ...Canadian OIL,major Real Estate, Ports and Land! It was very obvious when Harper showed his true colours that he was managed by another power when he handed over one of Canada's biggest oil companies [NEXEN] without due process, public consultation and discussion/debate in parliament. A secret and therefor a treasonous act. No one knew until the dirty deed was done. China acquired it with a proviso that they could sue Canada over not getting "their due product" it in time for [14 years!]. They have us by the balls.
What do you think they have been doing all these years but storing up supplies for a global event. Look at all the commodities they have been buying around the world all these years like they were going out of style and where have they been used...They haven't! Stored Away.
Yes they will survive without oil in the short term...and yes its the weakest link, energy, but they now can outlast all other countries when a 'global catastrophe' occurs. And that my friends is one they now can initiate.
Look at all the military secrets they have stolen, look at all the hacking they have been doing...all for what reason you may ask.
We have been hoodwinked by a "hijacked media", a fog, when all the action in the world has been all about China....Not about the Middle East! The biggest false flag ever created. Keep your eyes on the ball and dont be led by the rigged media. The big picture is China; taking over and cornering markets such as major real estates such as Ports, Media Networks, Power Companies and other infrastructure companies is all part of this process.
Are you aware that the Chinese contingency in the UN Peace Keeping Corps,so called,[I call Globo'Cop] is the second biggest now! What is that telling you.
Peace keeping...LOL
China buys up Britain...
China buys up Australia
China buys up Canada
China buys up the US
Our ignorant [corrupted] PM's are handing over the keys to our [Canadian Sovereignty & Security] our kingdom and the jewels in the crown, ...Canadian OIL,major Real Estate, Ports and Land! It was very obvious when Harper showed his true colours that he was managed by another power when he handed over one of Canada's biggest oil companies [NEXEN] without due process, public consultation and discussion/debate in parliament. A secret and therefor a treasonous act. No one knew until the dirty deed was done. China acquired it with a proviso that they could sue Canada over not getting "their due product" it in time for [14 years!]. They have us by the balls.
What do you think they have been doing all these years but storing up supplies for a global event. Look at all the commodities they have been buying around the world all these years like they were going out of style and where have they been used...They haven't! Stored Away.
Yes they will survive without oil in the short term...and yes its the weakest link, energy, but they now can outlast all other countries when a 'global catastrophe' occurs. And that my friends is one they now can initiate.
Look at all the military secrets they have stolen, look at all the hacking they have been doing...all for what reason you may ask.
We have been hoodwinked by a "hijacked media", a fog, when all the action in the world has been all about China....Not about the Middle East! The biggest false flag ever created. Keep your eyes on the ball and dont be led by the rigged media. The big picture is China; taking over and cornering markets such as major real estates such as Ports, Media Networks, Power Companies and other infrastructure companies is all part of this process.
Are you aware that the Chinese contingency in the UN Peace Keeping Corps,so called,[I call Globo'Cop] is the second biggest now! What is that telling you.
MONDAY, AUGUST 27, 2018
U.S.-CHINA U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION- ANNOUNCEMENTS TO DATE
ANNOUNCEMENTS
08/24/2018
CHINA’S OVERSEAS UNITED FRONT WORK: BACKGROUND AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES China uses “United Front” work to co-opt and neutralize sources of potential opposition to the policies and authority of its ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The CCP’s United Front Work Department (UFWD)—the agency responsible for coordinating these kinds of influence operations—mostly focuses on the management of potential opposition groups inside China, but it also has an important foreign influence mission. To carry out its influence activities abroad, the UFWD directs “overseas Chinese work,” which seeks to co-opt ethnic Chinese individuals and communities living outside China, while a number of other key affiliated organizations guided by China’s broader United Front strategy conduct influence operations targeting foreign actors and states. Some of these entities have clear connections to the CCP’s United Front strategy, while others’ linkage is less explicit. Today, United Front-related organizations are playing an increasingly important role in China’s broader foreign policy under Chinese President and General Secretary of the CCP Xi Jinping. It is precisely the nature of United Front work to seek influence through connections that are difficult to publically prove and to gain influence that is interwoven with sensitive issues such as ethnic, political, and national identity, making those who seek to identify the negative effects of such influence vulnerable to accusations of prejudice. Because of the complexities of this issue, it is crucial for the U.S. government to better understand Beijing’s United Front strategy, its goals, and the actors responsible for achieving them if it is to formulate an effective and comprehensive response
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: In the first half of 2018, the U.S. goods trade deficit with China reached $185.7 billion, up about 9 percent year-on-year; in the month of June, U.S. agricultural exports to China declined 34.4 percent and livestock declined 39.2 percent year-on-year; in services, the United States reached a record high trade surplus with China in Q1 2018, but exports of travel—the main driver of U.S. service exports to China—slowed to their lowest year-on-year growth in 14 years. • Bilateral policy issues: Following tariffs imposed July 6, the United States initiated WTO cases against five trade partners, and published a list of tariffs on $200 billion worth of additional Chinese imports, as China threatens retaliation; Chinese regulators fail to approve Qualcomm’s proposed acquisition of NXP. • Quarterly review of China’s economy: China’s officially-reported GDP growth slowed to 6.7 percent year-on-year in Q2 2018 as fixed asset investment, industrial output, and retail sales lose steam; Chinese policymakers implement measures to increase credit growth and spur economic activity despite pledges to focus on deleveraging; the RMB’s value falls due to trade tensions and signs of an economic slowdown in China, raising concerns Beijing could use currency devaluations to offset the impact of U.S. tariffs.
07/19/2018
Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China has leveraged relatively cheap labor, large economies of scale, industrial policies, and the manufacturing capabilities of neighboring countries to become an export powerhouse in an increasing range of industries, while often limiting market access for foreign products. China’s scale as a trading power coupled with its protectionist policies have contributed to rising tensions in bilateral trade relations. This report describes and analyzes patterns in the U.S.-China trade relationship in 2012–2017 and is an update to a staff research report published by the Commission in November 2012 which covered trends in trade in 2000–2011.
07/09/2018
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: U.S.-China goods trade deficit reached $33.2 billion in May 2018, and $152.2 billion year-to-date. • Bilateral policy issues: U.S. tariffs against $34 billion worth of Chinese imports go into effect as China implements retaliatory action and takes steps to dull the impact of U.S. tariffs on China’s economy; U.S. Department of Commerce reverses ZTE exclusion order, but Members of Congress are working on legislation to reinstate sanctions. • Policy trends in China’s economy: Chinese investment in the United States fell 90 percent year-on-year to $1.8 billion in the first five months of 2018 due, in part, to Beijing’s intensified scrutiny of outbound flows; China issues new foreign investment negative list, lifting ownership restrictions in 22 industries, including airplane design and manufacturing, agriculture, automotive, banking, railway construction, and shipping. • Sector Focus – China Pursues Foreign Semiconductor Technology: Since 2015, U.S. semiconductor firm Micron has been subject to a persistent, wide-ranging technology acquisition campaign from multiple Chinese actors, involving an attempted purchase, alleged IP theft, a direct challenge of Micron’s IP in China, and an on-going antitrust case.
06/14/2018
Since President Xi took office in 2013, Beijing has significantly bolstered its involvement in the Pacific Islands region, which comprises three U.S. territories and three countries freely associated with the United States that are important for U.S. defense interests in the Indo-Pacific. Much of China’s engagement in the region has focused on expanding economic ties with the Pacific Islands, but it has also increased its footprint in the diplomatic and security realms. This report examines China’s interests in the region, its comprehensive engagement in the Pacific Islands, and the implications of its expanding presence and influence for the United States.
06/08/2018
This hearing is intended to explore U.S. policy options available to address Chinese market distortions. The first panel, “A Coordinated Policy Response to Chinese State Capitalism,” will address industrial policy challenges like subsidies, price distortions, and investment restrictions. The second panel, “A Coordinated Policy Response to China’s Techno-nationalism,” will focus on challenges from China’s push to develop domestic-led intellectual property, including technology transfer, IP or data theft, and restrictions on cross-border data flows.
06/06/2018
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: U.S. goods deficit with China increases 11.8 percent in the first four months of 2018 as growth in U.S. imports from China outpaces exports. • Bilateral policy issues: The United States and China issue a joint statement on the ongoing trade negotiations, but outcomes remain in flux as tariff and investment action deadlines near; the U.S. government considers alternative penalties for ZTE’s violation of its 2017 settlement with U.S. authorities; China drops antidumping probe into U.S. sorghum, but U.S. soy exports still threatened. • Policy trends in China’s economy: China compels multinational companies to list Taiwan as a Chinese territory, increasingly using Chinese domestic laws as leverage. • Sector Focus — Autos: China’s auto market continues to grow, albeit slower than in previous years; as China prepares to lower tariffs on auto imports, European firms are better positioned to take advantage of increased market access than U.S. firms, most of which manufacture cars in China through joint ventures.
05/24/2018
The Chinese government is seeking to revamp its state sector through a series of billion dollar “megamergers” involving central state-owned enterprises (SOEs). These megamergers consolidate state control in strategic sectors of economy and eliminate intra-state competition in China. However, they also contribute to increased debt levels among Chinese SOEs and undermine the competitiveness of U.S. businesses and other global firms. This report assesses the objectives of China’s megamergers strategy and evaluates the implications of SOE megamergers (and, more broadly, Chinese government control over the economy) for the global competitive landscape.
05/17/2018
China’s digital game market has emerged as the largest in the world but remains heavily restricted to U.S. game companies. U.S. companies are required to license their games to Chinese operators who appear to claim a majority of the revenue a U.S. game earns in China. Intellectual property rights conditions in China create significant challenges for U.S. firms, facilitating piracy in other international markets through China’s manufacture of piracy-enabling devices and restricting the commercial viability of certain gaming genres and platforms within China due to widespread piracy. Chinese companies have acquired several foreign game companies, raising data privacy concerns given the power of the Chinese government to request information from domestic companies and the broad array of data that can be collected by mobile games.
05/10/2018
The report examines five categories of China’s advanced weapons systems (counter-space, unmanned systems, maneuverable reentry vehicles, directed energy and electromagnetic railguns) and artificial intelligence applications for national defense. The report also assesses the implications of China’s advanced weapons programs for the United States and its allies and provides recommendations.
05/10/2018
The report examines five categories of China’s advanced weapons systems (counter-space, unmanned systems, maneuverable reentry vehicles, directed energy and electromagnetic railguns) and artificial intelligence applications for national defense. The report also assesses the implications of China’s advanced weapons programs for the United States and its allies and provides recommendations.
05/04/2018
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: In the first quarter of 2018, the U.S. goods trade deficit with China grew about 15.5 percent year-on-year due to increased imports; in services, the United States reached record high trade surplus with China in 2017, but export growth was the lowest in over 13 years. • Bilateral policy issues: U.S. Department of Commerce bans U.S. firms from exporting to ZTE due to ZTE’s repeated violations of its settlement with U.S. authorities; Chinese government strengthens long-standing policies to replace foreign technology with domestic equivalents; the EU and Japan join the United States in a challenge of China’s licensing regulations, while the EU joins China in its request for consultations regarding Section 232 tariffs; Beijing increases retaliatory pressure on the U.S. agriculture sector by imposing a 178.6 percent antidumping deposit on U.S. sorghum; 82 percent of all U.S. agriculture exports to China are subject to planned or enacted retaliatory Chinese tariffs. • Quarterly review of China’s economy: The Chinese economy grew 6.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018, benefitting from strong consumer demand and increased real estate investment. • Policy trends in China’s economy: At the Boao Forum, President Xi pays lip service to globalization and economic liberalization, but offers modest commitments.
04/26/2018
This hearing will investigate China’s food policies and how they affect the United States. It will examine China’s food security and agricultural trade policy, China’s investment in food resources abroad, the impact of China’s biotechnology policies on U.S. firms and farmers, and export opportunities for U.S. food and agricultural firms in China. It will also probe food safety challenges in China and how the United States should respond to food safety and market conditions in China.
04/19/2018
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released a report entitled Supply Chain Vulnerabilities from China in U.S. Federal Information and Communications Technology, prepared for the Commission by Interos Solutions, Inc. The report examines vulnerabilities in the U.S. government information and communications technology (ICT) supply chains posed by China, and makes recommendations for supply chain risk management.
04/19/2018
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released a report entitled Supply Chain Vulnerabilities from China in U.S. Federal Information and Communications Technology, prepared for the Commission by Interos Solutions, Inc. The report examines vulnerabilities in the U.S. government information and communications technology (ICT) supply chains posed by China, and makes recommendations for supply chain risk management.
04/12/2018
This roundtable will examine Chinese views on the likelihood of various potential North Korean contingencies, how China could play a role in the lead-up to or unfolding of such contingencies, and implications for the United States and the region. This roundtable will explore the following: (1) Chinese thinking about potential crises and contingencies involving North Korea; (2) what the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and other stakeholders are doing to prepare for these various scenarios; (3) Chinese diplomatic activities in this area; and (4) geopolitical and security implications for the United States.
04/06/2018
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: In February 2018, U.S. goods deficit with China hit $29.3 billion, a 27.4 percent jump year-on-year; U.S. exports stall at their 2017 level. • Bilateral policy issues: The USTR’s Section 301 report details unfair Chinese government technology transfer and IP practices; the USTR subsequently launched a WTO complaint regarding China’s licensing regulations and is working to identify imports to target with tariffs; a GAO report recommends Treasury review staffing and resource levels for CFIUS to determine whether they are sufficient for handling an increasingly difficult workload; President Trump blocks Qualcomm acquisition by Singapore-based Broadcom amid concerns it could weaken Qualcomm’s long-term ability to compete with Chinese firms. • Policy trends in China’s economy: China’s National People’s Congress passes measures tightening the CCP’s control, including eliminating presidential term limits and approving a sweeping government reorganization plan; sweeping reforms to China’s government bureaucracy highlight government priorities and seek to reduce regulatory confusion, increasing efficiency and Party control over policy. • Sector focus – 5G: China’s drive for global leadership in 5G creates new economic and national security concerns for the United States.
04/05/2018
This hearing will explore Beijing’s objectives in its relations with U.S. allies and partners in Europe and the Asia Pacific and the means by which Beijing seeks to achieve those objectives. It will examine how Beijing employs and integrates various elements of its national power to influence these countries, these countries’ responses to Beijing’s efforts, and the implications for the United States’ interests and its relations with its European and Asia Pacific allies and partners.
03/28/2018
The Chinese government has a comprehensive, long-term industrial strategy to build internationally competitive domestic firms and replace foreign technology and products with domestic equivalents first at home, and then abroad. This issue brief serves as a primer on the policies in the Chinese government’s toolbox for achieving its technonationalist targets, to include localization, massive subsidies for R&D, government procurement, China-specific standards, foreign investment restrictions, recruitment of foreign talent, state-directed acquisition of foreign technology and intellectual property, and, in some cases, industrial espionage.
03/22/2018
In November and December 2017, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force conducted at least nine long-distance training flights over maritime areas along China’s periphery, continuing a trend that began in 2015. Since 2015, long-distance over-water training has become more frequent, featured a greater variety of aircraft, and extended into areas in which the air force had not previously operated. The long-distance over-water training is part of a broader PLA Air Force effort to transition from a service focused on territorial air defense to one capable of conducting offensive and defensive operations beyond China’s coast. These flight activities potentially challenge U.S. interests by (1) improving the PLA Air Force’s capability to execute maritime missions against the United States and U.S. allies and partners in the region; (2) gathering intelligence against the U.S. military and U.S. allies and partners; and (3) reinforcing claims in maritime disputes and pressuring Taiwan.
03/09/2018
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: In January 2018, the U.S. goods deficit with China grew 14.8 percent year-on-year to reach $36 billion—its highest ever for January and its highest monthly level since September 2015. • Bilateral policy issues: The U.S. Department of Commerce submits its Section 232 recommendations for tariffs or quotas on U.S. steel and aluminum imports; SEC blocks acquisition of Chicago Stock Exchange by Chinese-led investor group based on concerns over transparency, oversight, and compliance with ownership limits; AmCham and USCBC surveys of U.S. businesses in China find some signs of rising optimism due to increasing profits and confidence in China’s economic growth, but regulatory and market access challenges persist as firms feel increasingly unwelcome in Chinese markets. • Policy trends in China’s economy: In their continuing battle against financial risks, Chinese regulators maintain focus on shadow banking, issuing a series of measures to curb riskier forms of lending. • Sector focus – Sorghum and Soybeans: In response to defensive U.S. trade measures, China considers duties against U.S. sorghum and soybeans, putting 67 percent of U.S. agricultural exports to China at risk.
03/08/2018
This hearing will compare and contrast U.S. and Chinese pursuit of next generation connected devices and networks and the implications for U.S. economic competitiveness and national security. The hearing will focus on U.S. and Chinese 5th generation wireless technology (5G) and Internet of Things standards and technology development, U.S. usage of Chinese Internet of Things technologies and 5G networks, and the ability of Chinese firms to collect and utilize data from U.S. consumers through Internet of Things technologies.
02/15/2018
The Commission’s February hearing on “China’s Military Reforms and Modernization: Implications for the United States” will provide insight into how China’s ongoing military reform efforts and President Xi’s vision for achieving the “China Dream” are shaping PLA long-term defense planning, weapons development, and acquisition programs. The hearing will specifically assess the political and security drivers shaping China’s military modernization efforts; the reformed Central Military Commission’s role in coordinating modernization priorities with the military services; the development of forces capable of conducting joint operations; and implications for the United States.
02/07/2018
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: In 2017, the U.S. goods trade deficit with China climbed 8.1 percent on the previous year to $375.2 billion, the highest deficit on record; U.S. services exports to China grow at the slowest rate since 2009 due to a slowdown in tourism to the United States. • Bilateral policy issues: The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative’s 2017 report on China’s adherence to WTO commitments criticizes China’s noncompliance, noting “it is now clear that the WTO rules are not sufficient to constrain China’s market-distorting behavior.” • Quarterly review of China’s economy: China’s economy grew 6.9 percent year-on-year in 2017, driven by greater domestic consumption, higher industrial output, and global demand. • Policy trends in China’s economy: The Chinese government takes steps to discourage bitcoin mining in its latest crackdown on the cryptocurrency; China’s central bank adjusts exchange rate management regime. • Sector focus – Chinese Outbound Investment: Chinese investment into the United States drops 35 percent following China’s imposition of capital control measures; newly announced Chinese investment deals in the United States are 90 percent lower in 2017 than 2016; concerns over espionage activity, opaque ownership structures, and a lack of privacy protections for U.S. customers cause HNA and Ant Financial’s U.S. acquisition transactions to flounder and terminate Huawei’s mobile phone partnerships with U.S. carriers.
01/25/2018
01/08/2018
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China totaled $35.4 billion in November 2017, its highest monthly level in the past two years and a 16.2 percent increase year-on-year. • Bilateral policy issues: President Trump issues National Security Strategy calling for more assertive policies to combat Chinese influence campaigns and economic coercion; the U.S. government is pursuing multilateral and bilateral approaches to confront China’s market-distorting support for sectors such as steel and aluminum. • Policy trends in China’s economy: At the Central Economic Work Conference, Chinese leaders maintain last year’s focus on financial risks and supply-side structural reform but place less emphasis on deleveraging; IMF cites China’s credit growth, regulation, and implicit credit guarantees from banks and government actors as top concerns in its most recent financial system stability report. • Sector focus – Consumer Goods: U.S. consumer goods exports to China experience consistent growth from 2003 to 2016 despite accounting for a small portion of U.S. exports to China; on December 1, the Chinese government cut tariffs on several products, including top U.S. consumer good exports.
12/18/2017
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission invites submission of proposals to provide copyediting and proofreading services to the Commission. Electronic or hard copy proposals must be received by 5:30PM EST on January 22, 2018.
12/05/2017
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: In October 2017, U.S. goods trade deficit grew 13.2 percent year-on-year to reach $35.2 billion; year-to-date, the deficit reached $309 billion, up 7 percent year-on-year. • Bilateral policy issues: President Trump traveled to China for a presidential summit with President Xi, which culminated in a series of business agreements worth about $250 billion, but no resolutions on higher-priority issues; citing wide-spread shortcomings in China’s economic reform, the U.S. Department of Commerce maintains its classification of China as a nonmarket economy, prompting China to launch a new WTO case against the United States. • Policy trends in China’s economy: China announces plans to relax or eliminate caps on foreign ownership in Chinese financial institutions; NDRC launches third wave of mixed-ownership SOE reforms, seeking to introduce increased private capital in the state sector while simultaneously strengthening government’s role in the economy; Alibaba’s Singles’ Day reaches new sales record of $25.3 billion, eclipsing U.S. Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. • Sector focus – Commercial Aviation: U.S. and Chinese aviation regulations will recognize each other’s approvals for aircraft and aviation products, likely increasing U.S. imports of Chinese aircraft and aviation.
11/29/2017
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report on the U.S. role in China’s biotechnology development. Electronic or hard copy proposals must be received by 5:30PM EST on January 10, 2018.
11/27/2017
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission invites submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report on China’s Internet of Things. Electronic or hard copy proposals must be received by 5:30PM EST on January 5, 2018.
The Commission released its 2017 Annual Report to Congress on Wednesday, November 15, 2017. Webcast: https://www.senate.gov/isvp/?type=live&comm=uscc&filename=uscc111517
11/03/2017
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: In the third quarter of 2017, the U.S. goods trade deficit with China grew 6.7 percent due to increased imports; U.S. services exports to China reach a new record, driven by increases in tourism, financial services, and intellectual property payments. • Bilateral policy issues: In a setback to China’s pursuit of market economy status, the EU adopts a new antidumping methodology and the United States implements new duties on imports of Chinese aluminum; U.S. experts and industry groups highlight several intellectual property and technology transfer challenges in China as part of the Administration’s Section 301 investigation. • Policy trends in China’s economy: China delays a food safety certification program that would put $22 billion of U.S. exports at risk by two years; after lobbying by the EU, China ends a discriminatory ban on soft cheese imports; China’s government announces changes to China’s drug approval process that—if fully implemented—may reduce approval delays for U.S. drugs by several years. • Quarterly review of China’s economy: Chinese government ensures high rate of growth for China’s economy in the run-up to the 19th Party Congress, but problems remain unaddressed. • Sector focus – Electric Vehicles: China transforms into the global electric vehicle leader by leveraging state support and excluding foreign competitors.
10/05/2017
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: In August 2017, U.S. goods trade deficit increased 3.1 percent year-on-year to reach $34.9 billion; U.S. exports to China were nearly $11 billion, up 16.3 percent year-on-year. • Bilateral policy issues: President Trump blocks an attempted acquisition of Lattice Semiconductor by a company with links to the Chinese government amid potential national security concerns. • Policy trends in China’s economy: Chinese regulators are putting the brakes on bitcoin and other virtual currencies; U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas exports to China surge due to favorable pricing and growing demand. • Sector focus – Waste and Scrap: China begins closing its waste and scrap market, putting $5 billion of U.S. exports at risk.
09/11/2017
As space becomes more “congested, contested, and competitive,” as termed in the 2011 U.S. National Security Space Strategy, efforts by spacefaring nations to establish norms of behavior in space have become increasingly important. This issue brief examines China’s views on the Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities proposed by the European Union, finding that Beijing instead continues to support a binding treaty that would ban the deployment of weapons in space, which it has jointly proposed with Russia. This treaty would significantly limit U.S. activities in space while doing little to reduce actual threats to space assets. China’s actions in regards to codes of conduct in other areas indicate it sometimes uses negotiations to prolong the status quo, and does not always adhere to its agreements. Should China continue to place a high value on developing military counterspace capabilities, its position should be expected to remain unchanged.
09/06/2017
Highlights of This Month's Edition: • Bilateral trade: U.S. goods deficit with China reached $33.6 billion in July 2017, a 10.6 percent increase year-on-year, due to robust growth in U.S. imports. • Bilateral policy issues: The USTR launches a Section 301 investigation into China’s industrial policies; the United States imposes new secondary sanctions on Chinese companies over their engagement with North Korea. • Policy trends in China’s economy: To counter declining inbound foreign investment, China’s State Council announces several measures to improve business environment for foreign firms; meanwhile, China’s government continues the crackdown on outbound investment by restricting investment into foreign real estate, hospitality, and entertainment sectors; in its annual review of China’s economy, the IMF warns China’s current credit trajectory is “dangerous.” • Sector focus – Oil: U.S. oil exports to China rise markedly amid declining oil production in China and production cuts in other oil-exporting countries.
08/08/2017
China maintains a network of prison labor facilities that use forced labor to produce goods intended for export—a violation of U.S.-China trade agreements and U.S. law. The United States continues to face difficulty in preventing these products from entering its borders, but the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act (TFTEA) of 2015 has strengthened its ability to do so by closing a major legal loophole. Chinese authorities remain uncooperative with their U.S. counterparts; they routinely deny that forced labor occurs, and they have not allowed U.S. officials to visit suspected sites in years. Due to insufficient oversight, the supply chains of many U.S. companies remain vulnerable to forced labor-derived products.
08/07/2017
Highlights of This Month’s Edition: • Bilateral trade: In the first six months of 2017, U.S. goods trade deficit grew to $171 billion, up 6 percent year-on-year; U.S. deficit in advanced technology products increases 124 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2017 as Chinese telecommunications exports soar and U.S. aerospace exports decline; U.S. services exports to China reach a new record, driven by increases in tourism, financial services, and intellectual property payments. • Bilateral policy issues: The inaugural Comprehensive Economic Dialogue concludes with no concrete agreements; China clamps down on the use of VPNs, threatening free flow of data and business operations. • Policy trends in China’s economy: China’s National Financial Work Conference produces modest outcomes; faced with mounting corporate debt and capital flight, the Chinese government introduces new regulations limiting large overseas investments, leading to the withdrawal of several high-profile deals in the United States. • Quarterly review of China’s economy: China’s economy grew 6.9 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2017, fueled primarily by surging industrial activity, property investment, and credit growth. • Sector focus – Rice: U.S. rice producers gain access to China’s market, but challenges remain.
07/26/2017
In July 2016, the United States and South Korea announced the alliance decision to deploy a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) antimissile battery in South Korea to defend against the increasing North Korean missile threat. The move has angered Beijing, which perceives THAAD as mostly directed at China and a regional security concern, according to its official statements. In response, Beijing has used economic coercion, among other levers, to try to compel Seoul to abandon the THAAD deployment, but these efforts have proven unsuccessful. This report includes an overview of the THAAD system and its deployment, China’s stated concerns about THAAD, and China’s array of pressure directed against South Korea. It also examines the implications of China’s forceful response to the deployment for the United States and the geopolitical landscape in the Asia Pacific.
07/12/2017
This roundtable will examine three interrelated topics: the overall health of China’s economy, the impact of China’s economic slowdown on the global economic system, and the specific impact on the U.S. economy and the U.S.-China economic relationship. The roundtable will be co-chaired by Vice Chairman Dennis Shea and Commissioner Michael Wessel.
07/06/2017
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: In May, U.S. experiences the highest goods trade deficit with China since October 2016. • Bilateral policy issues: U.S. beef and dairy products regain access to China’s markets, but low levels of traceable U.S. beef remain an obstacle; Chinese chicken in final stages of gaining approval for export to the U.S. market; China approves two U.S. biotech crops for import, but structural causes behind delays for biotech approval remain. • Policy trends in China’s economy: MSCI includes 222 China A-shares in its Emerging Markets Index, an important step toward opening China’s capital markets to foreign investors. • Sector focus – Payments: In China’s payments sector, U.S. companies face regulatory challenges and stiff domestic competition, while Chinese companies are starting to access the U.S. market.
06/22/2017
China’s rebalancing to a more consumption-driven economy presents opportunities for U.S. companies in the e-commerce, logistics, and financial services sectors. At the same time, U.S. service industries operating in and exporting to China continue to face significant market access challenges, including informal bans on entry, caps on foreign equity, high capital requirements, and data localization policies. This hearing will examine recent developments in China’s e-commerce, logistics, and financial services sectors and identify opportunities and challenges for U.S. companies.
06/08/2017
This hearing will investigate China’s relations with Northeast Asia (North Korea, South Korea, and Japan) and Continental Southeast Asia (Burma, Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia). Its investigation of issues in Northeast Asia will focus on the effect of tensions on the Korean Peninsula on China’s bilateral relationships and approach to the region as a whole. Its investigation of issues in Continental Southeast Asia will focus on China’s economic engagement with the region; regional countries’ response to China’s economic engagement; and China’s role in the security dynamics of the region.
06/02/2017
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: U.S. goods deficit with China in April 2017 increased 13.7 percent year-on-year due to robust growth in U.S. imports. • Bilateral policy issues: The initial results of the U.S.-China 100-day action plan yield modest outcomes on agriculture, financial services, natural gas, and biotechnology; China’s cybersecurity law restricting overseas data flows goes into effect despite protests from foreign businesses; the Cybersecurity Administration of China prohibits foreign online news providers from operating in China through joint ventures. • Policy trends in China’s economy: China’s banking regulator issues comprehensive guidelines for controlling risks surrounding shady wealth management products (WMPs); new restrictions have caused banks to unwind WMP investment, which has raised costs of borrowing in some markets; China holds May 2017 summit for its One Belt One Road initiative, pledging $124 billion in funding for infrastructure projects and industrial development in participating countries; China plans to invest in a new economic zone called Xiongan New Area. • Sector focus – Beef: China promises to reopen its market to U.S. beef, but the lack of progress on Chinese poultry imports to the United States, use of growth-enhancing drugs in the feed of U.S. cattle, and lack of traceability of U.S. beef remain major hurdles to finalizing negotiations.
05/11/2017
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission invites submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report on supply chain vulnerabilities from China in U.S. federal information technology (IT) procurement. Electronic or hard-copy proposals must be received by 5:30PM (EST) on June 14, 2017.
05/09/2017
China’s direct financial linkages with the United States have been growing but remain very modest when compared to the two countries’ trade linkages. Beijing has taken steps to gradually open its financial sector to foreign investors, but U.S. investors have displayed little interest since the reforms are happening as Chinese policymakers impose tighter restrictions on foreign currency conversions and outbound capital flows. Economic and financial developments in China can affect U.S. financial markets more substantially through indirect channels, as was evident in the reaction of U.S. equities to China’s stock market crashes in 2015 and 2016. More broadly, the impact of China’s slowing growth and economic reforms on trade, commodities demand, and investor confidence affects global financial markets, which in turn influence U.S. financial markets.
05/05/2017
Highlights of this Month’s Edition · Bilateral trade: The U.S. goods trade deficit with China rose 1.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2017; in services, the United States the U.S. trade surplus in China for 2016 hit an all-time high of $37.4 billion. · Bilateral policy issues: At their first summit, Presidents Trump and Xi agree to reform a flagship bilateral dialogue and launch a 100-day plan for addressing economic and trade issues; the U.S. Treasury does not cite China as a currency manipulator and notes China’s intervention to strengthen its currency; the USTR calls China’s barriers to cloud computing incompatible with its WTO commitments, and identifies market access restrictions and domestic support for China’s agricultural sector; the United States challenges China at the WTO over its failure to fully report its subsidies and launches investigations to protect its domestic steel and aluminum industries. · Quarterly review of China’s economy: China’s economy grew 6.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2017, fueled primarily by surging industrial activity, property investment, and credit growth.
05/04/2017
This hearing will examine the effectiveness of Chinese censorship mechanisms as well the current reliability of censorship circumvention methods and the implications for the United States of China’s attempts to export its information control practices. It will also address China’s soft power strategy to influence media globally, especially its influence over entertainment and journalism, and it will assess the degree of freedom currently allowed to Chinese and foreign reporters in China. Finally, it will address trends in the regulation of cyberspace, the international implications of China’s concept of Internet sovereignty, and China’s computer network operations doctrine, including how Chinese strategists conceptualize deterrence in cyberspace.
04/21/2017
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission invites submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report on China’s development of advanced weapons. Electronic or hard-copy proposals must be received by 5:30PM (EST) on May 30, 2017.
04/19/2017
This two page issue brief lays out the U.S. statutory test for determining whether a country is a market economy, and assesses China’s eligibility based on those criteria.
04/13/2017
This hearing will discuss Beijing’s perceived security concerns regarding Taiwan, the East China Sea (Senkaku Islands), as well as challenges to China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea. These areas are “regional hotspots” for which the People's Liberation Army is actively preparing for contingencies that could result in armed conflicts between China and U.S. allies, friends, and partners in the Asia Pacific region which could or, in the case of an ally, would result in a diplomatic or military response by the United States. The hearing will take place in Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room 419 at 9:30 AM on Thursday, April 13.
04/04/2017
Highlights of This Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: In February, U.S. deficit with China reached $23 billion, down 26.6 percent month-on-month and 18.3 percent year-on-year. • Bilateral policy issues: The United States is poised to maintain China’s status as a nonmarket economy; at Beijing’s request, WTO establishes panel to review the EU’s treatment of China as a nonmarket economy; Chinese outbound investment reached record levels in 2016, but an unprecedented number of Chinese investment transactions were canceled as Chinese authorities adopt measures to control capital outflows; additional measures to restrict outbound FDI will likely lead to an investment decline in 2017; China expands foothold in the U.S. rail market with a new $137.5 million contract to build train cars for Philadelphia’s transit system. • Policy trends in China’s economy: Work reports from China’s National People’s Congress stress the centrality of the CCP in policymaking, with President Xi at the helm; priority given to clamping down on financial instability; China is planning to establish a trading link connecting bond markets in China and Hong Kong. • Sector focus – Artificial Intelligence: China is aggressively closing gap with the United States for global leadership in artificial intelligence.
03/29/2017
The report examines Chinese investment in U.S. aviation and related university connections with Chinese entities and assesses the implications of the resulting technology transfer on U.S. national security and aviation industry competitiveness. This report was prepared for the Commission by the RAND Corporation.
03/23/2017
Chinese imports account for a disproportionately high number of product safety recalls in the United States, and China’s position as the largest supplier of U.S. consumer imports challenges U.S. safety regulatory agencies who must apply finite resources to screen out risky products. This staff paper explores unique product safety problems posed by Chinese imports, including legal difficulties associated with holding China-based firms accountable for unsafe products, gaps in China’s safety regulatory structure, and difficulty in identifying Chinese products that have been shipped through third party countries. The report also summarizes U.S. import safety procedures followed by the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission and U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the resources available to these agencies to detect unsafe imports.
03/20/2017
Despite areas of tension and distrust between Beijing and Moscow since normalizing relations in 1989, the two countries’ militaries and defense establishments have steadily worked to minimize and overcome these differences and are now experiencing arguably the highest period of cooperation. This staff report analyzes the three main components of military-to-military ties—military exercises, defense industrial cooperation, and high-level military contacts—which show increases in the level and quality of engagement, collectively reflecting closer defense relations. The report also describes the security implications of recent developments in Sino-Russian defense cooperation for the United States and the Asia Pacific.
03/16/2017
Industrial policies outlined in the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) and related policy announcements seek to move Chinese manufacturing up the value-added chain, establish China as a global center of innovation and technology, and ensure China’s long-term productivity in critical dual-use technologies such as computing, robotics, and biotechnology. Advancements in these sectors have previously driven U.S. technological and military superiority, and the Chinese government is looking to develop its own technological leaders and reduce its dependence on foreign technology. This hearing will examine what steps the Chinese government has taken to support these sectors, compare U.S. and Chinese technological leadership in these sectors, and consider the broader implications of these policies for U.S. economic and national security interests.
03/08/2017
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission invites submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report on Chinese entities’ use of the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA). Electronic or hard-copy proposals must be received by NOON (EST) on April 3, 2017.
03/07/2017
Highlights of this month's edition: •Bilateral trade: U.S. exports and imports both rebounded in January increasing 22.6 percent and 11.4 percent year-on-year respectively. •Bilateral policy issues: IP Commission issues an updated report on harm to U.S. economy from IP theft, spotlights China’s continued outsized role; China bans four synthetic opioids, including carfentanil, in a decision hailed by U.S. law enforcement as a “game changer” for U.S. counternarcotic efforts. •Policy trends in China’s economy: Chinese steel capacity increased in 2016, despite plant closures and claims of cuts; despite persistent overcapacity, China dramatically reduces its 2017 targets for cutting capacity in coal mining compared to 2016, while many redundant coal power plants are still being planned or under construction. •Sector focus – Fertilizer: Chinese fertilizer exports fall due to rising coal prices as U.S. fertilizer capacity grows alongside natural gas production; the U.S. Department of Commerce issues antidumping duties of 498 percent on Chinese ammonium sulfate fertilizer imports.
02/23/2017
The hearing will examine the military technologies China is pursuing at the global technological frontier, its ability to develop innovative technologies going forward, and implications of these efforts for the United States.
02/21/2017
High-speed rail is a symbol of China’s technological progress and a significant source of national pride. In under a decade, China built the world’s largest high-speed rail network and developed globally competitive rail companies. Now Beijing is pursuing contracts for high-speed rail projects abroad. This staff report examines China’s high-speed rail diplomacy and growing footprint in the U.S. rail market. China’s initial forays in the U.S. rail market suggest Chinese rail firms have a mixed impact on U.S. industry. The United States does not have a domestic high-speed rail manufacturing industry, but China’s entry into the U.S. rail market could undermine competition by pitting heavily subsidized, state-owned companies against private firms.
02/14/2017
China is an important market for U.S. firms, but policies outlined in the 13th Five-Year Plan seek to create new Chinese competitors that will be able to challenge U.S. companies abroad while slowly closing market opportunities in China for U.S. and other foreign firms in important high-tech sectors such as biopharmaceuticals, robotics, and aviation. This staff report analyzes the 13th Five-Year Plan, the Chinese government’s most important strategy to address its economic, social, and environmental challenges over the next five years, focusing on key national targets (including subsequently announced localization and innovation targets), market access commitments, and its implications for the U.S. employment, innovation, and economic growth.
02/09/2017
In December 2016, Sao Tome and Principe—a country consisting of a group of islands and islets off the western coast of central Africa—broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and re-established diplomatic relations with China. The issue brief describes what happened, what it means for Taiwan, and how it fits into a series of measures that Beijing has taken to pressure Taiwan since the election of Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen. •This is the second time since President Tsai’s election that Beijing has re-established diplomatic relations with one of Taipei’s former diplomatic partners—of which it now has only 21—marking a change in Beijing’s behavior. In 2008, Taipei and Beijing reached a tacit understanding to stop competing for recognition from each other’s diplomatic partners—a “diplomatic truce.” During the period that followed, Beijing also rejected overtures from several of Taiwan’s diplomatic partners to establish diplomatic relations with China. •Taiwan’s diplomatic relationships are significant for symbolic and practical reasons. Although, Taiwan almost certainly gains more from its unofficial relations with countries that have extensive international influence, such as the United States, diplomatic relations are an important component of Taiwan’s toolbox for maintaining a presence on the international stage. •Despite President Tsai’s pragmatic approach to cross-Strait relations and attempts to compromise, Beijing views her with suspicion due to her unwillingness to endorse the “one China” framework for cross-Strait relations. Other measures that Beijing has taken to pressure Taipei since President Tsai’s election include suspending official and semiofficial cross-Strait communication and meetings and excluding Taiwan from meetings of international organizations, among others.
02/07/2017
Highlights of this Month’s Edition: • Bilateral trade: The U.S. trade deficit declined to $347 billion in 2016, a 5.5 percent decrease year-on-year, due to weakened imports; U.S. service exports hit a record high, aided by increased Chinese tourism spending in the United States. • Bilateral policy issues: U.S. firms operating in China in 2016 report similar levels of profitability, but perceive a decline in the overall investment environment driven in part by concerns over China’s discriminatory and restrictive regulatory policies. • Quarterly review of China’s economy: China’s GDP growth hit 6.7 percent in 2016, supported by higher government spending and record bank lending; President Xi Jinping talks up globalization at Davos amid bleak exports. • Policy trends in China’s economy: Chinese government’s continued efforts to battle capital outflows are bearing fruit; China instructs Internet providers to end unauthorized VPN use and establishes funds for information infrastructure and development of domestic Internet companies. • Sector focus – Aluminum: U.S. government tightens antidumping and countervailing duties and launches a WTO case to fight China’s excess aluminum production.
02/01/2017
Mass quantities of fentanyl, a low-cost and highly potent synthetic drug, are being produced in China and brought illegally to the United States, contributing to a growing U.S. opioid crisis. The rise of fentanyl in the United States can be traced back to China’s large chemical and pharmaceutical industries, which manufacture vast quantities of the drug and its analogues to export to the western hemisphere with little regulatory oversight. This report examines how China’s illicit chemical production and inefficient U.S. and international counternarcotic efforts have contributed to dramatic increases in fentanyl-related deaths in the United States.
02/01/2017
This report examines China’s role as the primary source of fentanyl—a cheap, synthetically produced opioid—coming to the United States
01/26/2017
This hearing will explore patterns of Chinese investment in the United States and implications for U.S. policymakers. Topics that will be examined include China’s increasing investments in strategic sectors, Chinese state-owned companies claiming sovereign immunity in U.S. courts, and duress acquisitions of U.S. entities by Chinese firms. The hearing will also cover the activities of Chinese companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges, assessing implications for U.S. investors and the U.S. economy at large.
01/09/2017
Highlights of this Month’s Edition •Bilateral trade: U.S. exports to China rise 14.1 percent year-on-year in November 2016, the largest increase since December 2013. Cumulative yearly trade with China and the U.S. goods trade deficit continue to decline year-on-year. •Bilateral policy issues: China launches complaint at the WTO against the United States and EU over market economy status; the United States challenges Chinese grain tariff rate quotas at the WTO; WTO talks to finalize the Environmental Goods Agreement collapsed, due in part to China’s last-minute submission of a new product list. •Policy trends in China’s economy: Capital outflows continue, forcing the Chinese government to spend down reserves and reinstitute capital controls to maintain the exchange rate; a new directive issued by the Chinese government prohibits social media sites from streaming videos on current events from non-government-approved sources.
01/05/2017
China’s Beidou satellite navigation system—one of the country’s top space projects and only the fourth system of its kind currently in development or operation—is projected to achieve global coverage by 2020. This report examines the objectives behind Beijing’s decision to develop the system as an alternative to GPS, its efforts to build an industry around the system, and the effects this might have in security, economic, and diplomatic terms for the United States. The system’s primary purpose is to end China’s military reliance on GPS, although China’s associated industrial policies will likely affect U.S. firms operating in China’s market. Industry professionals assess there are no inherent risks to products such as smartphones receiving data from Beidou.
12/08/2016
The report examines the rapidly increasing foreign direct investment by China in the United States and how the unprecedented level of investment, especially in sensitive sectors, raises new considerations for lawmakers regarding U.S. national and economic security. This report was prepared for the Commission by the Rhodium Group.
12/06/2016
Highlights of this Month’s Edition •Bilateral trade: U.S. exports to China jump 11.3 percent year-on-year in October 2016, leading to a smaller deficit. •Bilateral policy issues: At JCCT, China pledges to open entertainment sector to the United States, but U.S. concerns over Chinese biotechnology rules remain unaddressed. •Policy trends in China’s economy: China has passed a broad new cybersecurity law aimed at tightening government control over information flows and technology products, sparking complaints from foreign business and rights advocacy groups; Lou Jiwei replaced as Minister of Finance, raising concerns about China’s commitment to economic reform. • Sector focus – Singles’ Day and E-Commerce: Singles’ Day sets new record for online sales amid the continued rise of electronic transactions in China, offering new market opportunities for foreign firms.
11/16/2016
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has released the 2016 Annual Report to Congress. This year’s report covers Chinese overcapacity, investment in the United States, state-owned enterprise reform, China’s military buildup, espionage threats to the United States, and China’s relationship with the world (including a special focus on Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Asia, and North Korea), among other topics. Additionally, this year’s report has a new chapter on China’s response to the United States’ Rebalance to Asia. The congressionally-mandated report features 20 recommendations for lawmakers. Commissioners will be in attendance to present their analysis and answer any questions.
11/04/2016
Highlights of this Month’s Edition" • Bilateral trade: In the third quarter of 2016, the U.S. trade deficit declined year-on-year due to weakened imports; in the second quarter of 2016 U.S. service exports to China reach $10.8 billion, an 8 percent increase year-on-year. • Bilateral policy issues: China drops discriminatory aviation tax break; WTO rules against U.S. zeroing antidumping methodology; the United States advances WTO raw materials case against China. • Quarterly review of China’s economy: China’s GDP growth hit 6.7 percent for the third straight quarter; strong public investment, largely in real estate and infrastructure, has counterbalanced lower private sector investment and driven economic growth, but questions remain regarding the health of the underlying economy; RMB posts weakest rate against the dollar since 2010. • Policy trends in China’s economy: The CCP designates Xi Jinping as its “core” leader at the Sixth Plenum.
10/25/2016
The report examines the growth of China’s robotics industries and its development of unmanned industrial, service, and military systems, such as drones and driverless cars. The report assesses the economic and national security implications of these trends for the United States.
10/25/2016
Washington, DC - Today, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released a report, entitled China’s Industrial and Military Robotics Development, which was prepared at the Commission’s request by Defense Group, Inc.. The report examines the growth of China’s robotics industries and its development of unmanned industrial, service, and military systems, such as drones and driverless cars. The report assesses the economic and national security implications of these trends for the United States.
10/14/2016
Testimony of the Honorable Dennis C. Shea, Chairman, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, before the House Space, Science, and Technology Committee, Subcommittee on Space on September 27, 2016.
10/07/2016
Highlights of this Month’s Edition: • Bilateral trade: U.S. deficit with China widens in August 2016 on higher imports, but cumulative deficit down year-to-date. • Bilateral policy issues: Under China’s presidency, leaders at the G20 Summit in Hangzhou pledged to strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination to maintain global growth, but failed to issue concrete proposals; the USTR is challenging China’s excessive government support for rice, corn, and wheat production at the WTO. • Policy trends in China’s economy: The decreasing efficiency of new credit, the speed with which China is accumulating debt, and the rise of nonperforming loans are contributing to China’s vulnerability to a banking crisis; McDonald’s and Yum! Brands to sell rights to operate in China as U.S. fast food restaurants face stagnant growth in China. • Sector focus – Rice, Corn, and Wheat: Chinese support for domestic farmers creates world’s largest stockpile of grain and may cost U.S. wheat farmers $650 million annually; U.S. rice farmers gain access to Chinese market for the first time; U.S. corn exports declined 91 percent from 2012 to 2015 as China blocked shipments of U.S. corn in 2014 and started diversifying its corn imports.
09/02/2016
Highlights of this Month’s Edition: • Bilateral trade: The U.S. goods deficit with China continued to slow in July as growth in U.S. imports from China declined. • Bilateral policy issues: China hopes the G20 meeting focuses on maintaining economic growth and mobilizing funding for climate change and environmentally friendly growth. • Policy trends in China’s economy: The IMF warns of China’s rising debt levels in a new report; State Council approves plans for a Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect; China launches a $30 billion government-backed venture capital fund for industrial technology and pilots a limited program to allow SOE employees to own stocks. • Sector focus – Chinese distant water fishing: China’s distant water fishing fleet propped up by government subsidies that encourage excess capacity and overfishing, harming biodiversity.
08/08/2016
Highlights of this Month’s Edition: • Bilateral trade: Weaker imports cause the U.S. goods deficit with China to fall 5.7 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2016; U.S. service exports to China reach record high, buoyed by high Chinese tourism spending in the United States. • Bilateral policy issues: The United States and the EU fault China for lack of transparency at the WTO and cite concerns over delayed Chinese economic reform; the United States argues against granting China automatic market economy status in December; USTR is challenging China’s raw materials export restrictions at the WTO. • Quarterly review of China’s economy: In the second quarter of 2016, GDP growth held steady from the previous quarter at 6.7 percent as Beijing again turned to stimulus measures to boost the economy. • Policy trends in China’s economy: Chinese government approves debt-for-equity swap trials despite reservations from major banks; news portals shut down for violating China’s original news reporting prohibition. • Sector focus – Market barriers to U.S. drugs, medical devices, and medical services: China’s aging population drives expansion in the health industry, but numerous market barriers limit access for U.S. firms.
08/01/2016
A U.S.-China Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) is unique among other existing BITs insofar as it will have to balance the interests of two world powers that are both capital-importing and capital-exporting nations. It will not only determine future investment relations between the world’s two biggest economies, but will also set the precedent for U.S. investment relations with other major developing countries. While a U.S.-China BIT could potentially unlock sizable benefits, a number of significant challenges—many of which are unique to China’s involvement—complicate the debates around a prospective U.S.-China BIT. This report briefly summarizes each country’s history with BITs, identifies potential challenges in moving forward with negotiations, and highlights potential implications of the U.S.-China BIT for the United States. Drawing on the 2012 U.S. Model BIT, the evolution of China’s BIT practice, and China’s 2012 BIT with Canada, this report concludes by discussing a number of questions U.S. policymakers should consider.
07/28/2016
The report provides an assessment of China’s state plans for civilian and defense-related science and technology, industrial, and energy development and their economic and security implications for the United States. The authors are Tai Ming Cheung, Thomas Mahnken, Deborah Seligsohn, Kevin Pollpeter, Eric Anderson, and Fan Yang, writing for the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation.
07/28/2016
The report provides an assessment of China’s state plans for civilian and defense-related science and technology, industrial, and energy development and their economic and security implications for the United States. The authors are Tai Ming Cheung, Thomas Mahnken, Deborah Seligsohn, Kevin Pollpeter, Eric Anderson, and Fan Yang, writing for the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation.
07/25/2016
Chinese tourism to the United States has expanded rapidly over the past ten years. From 2005 to 2015, Chinese tourism spending in the United States has increased eight-fold, and in 2015 contributed $27 billion to the U.S. economy. Today, tourism constitutes a significant part of the United States’ exports to China, making up 57 percent of U.S. service exports to China in 2015 and 12 percent of U.S. exports to China overall. This increase has been driven by rising Chinese incomes which have made China the largest source of international tourists in the world. While many Chinese travel to the United States for traditional tourism, an increasing number of Chinese students travel to the United States for secondary and tertiary education, with China now contributing more students to the United States than any other country. As Chinese tourism has increased, Chinese investment in U.S. hotels and hospitality facilities has grown by a factor of 9 from 2013 to 2015 following looser Chinese rules on outbound investment. This paper examines the rise in Chinese tourism to the United States and Chinese investment in the U.S. hospitality sector and the consequences of these trends for the United States.
07/18/2016
Over the last 15 years, Mexican drug organizations have replaced domestic producers as the main manufacturers and distributors of meth in the United States. While Mexican cartels produce the majority (around 90 percent) of meth used in the United States, around 80 percent of precursor chemicals used in Mexican meth come from China. Precursor chemicals are increasingly being shipped from China to Mexico and Central America, where they are manufactured into meth, transported across the southern border of the United States, and brought into southwestern states—Texas, Arizona, and California—before being shipped across the country. Despite international counternarcotic efforts, meth precursor manufacturers in China continue to thrive because the country’s vast chemical and pharmaceutical industries are weakly regulated and poorly monitored. This report examines the extent of China’s illicit chemical production and the effectiveness of U.S. and international efforts to reduce precursor chemical flows.
07/14/2016
Testimony of the Honorable Dennis C. Shea, Chairman, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on July 14, 2016.
07/12/2016
On July 12, 2016, the arbitral tribunal adjudicating the Philippines’ case against China in the South China Sea ruled overwhelmingly in favor of the Philippines, determining that major elements of China’s claim—including its nine-dash line, recent land reclamation activities, and other activities in Philippine waters—were unlawful. Predictably, China reacted negatively to the ruling, maintaining it was “null and void.” China may take assertive and inflammatory steps to defend its position. The extent to which China abides by the ruling in the long term, and to which the international community supports and seeks to enforce the ruling, will have consequences for the utility of international law as a tool to ensure the peaceful, stable, and lawful use of the seas going forward.
07/06/2016
Highlights of This Month’s Edition: • Bilateral trade: U.S. goods deficit with China continued to decelerate in May 2016 as growth in U.S. imports from China slowed. • Bilateral policy issues: At the eighth U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, participants failed to achieve any major breakthroughs on fundamental strategic and economic issues, but left with some deliverables on financial sector and environmental cooperation. • Policy trends in China’s economy: Brexit raises economic questions in Beijing, but the reaction in Chinese markets is largely muted; MSCI, the world’s largest index provider, once again delayed the inclusion of China’s domestic shares in its emerging markets benchmark; China takes more steps to internationalize the RMB, meanwhile the PBOC spends $473 billion in foreign reserves to stabilize its value.
06/16/2016
Today, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released a report prepared for the Commission by Murray Scot Tanner and James Bellacqua at CNA. CNA is a nonprofit research organization that operates the Center for Naval Analyses and the Institute for Public Research. The report, entitled China’s Response to Terrorism, examines the Chinese government’s efforts to combat terrorism by analyzing China’s definition and perception of its terrorist threat, its institutional infrastructure, strategy, and policies for combating terrorism, international counterterrorism cooperation efforts, and the opportunities for, and challenges of, U.S.-China cooperation on countering terrorism.
06/16/2016
The report, prepared for the Commission by Murray Scot Tanner and James Bellacqua at CNA, examines the Chinese government’s efforts to combat terrorism by analyzing China’s definition and perception of its terrorist threat, its institutional infrastructure, strategy, and policies for combating terrorism, international counterterrorism cooperation efforts, and the opportunities for, and challenges of, U.S.-China cooperation on countering terrorism.
06/09/2016
This hearing will examine the structure, capabilities, and recent reforms of Chinese intelligence services. It will describe how China conducts espionage and other forms of intelligence collection. It will assess the implications for U.S. national security of Chinese espionage operations in the United States and abroad that target U.S. national security organizations and actors, including U.S. defense industrial chains, military forces, and leading national security decision makers. Panelists will discuss recommendations for congressional action to address the threat of Chinese intelligence collection against the United States.
06/03/2016
Highlights of This Month’s Edition: • Bilateral trade: U.S. imports from China increase from March as exports to China decline, widening trade deficit; • Bilateral policy issues: Chinese SOEs claim sovereign immunity in U.S. courts, revealing gap in U.S. foreign ownership laws; U.S.-China trade tensions escalate at the WTO, with each country alleging the other failed to comply with adverse WTO decisions (the United States challenges Chinese duties on U.S. poultry, while China challenges U.S. antidumping and countervailing methodology); • Policy trends in China’s economy: China has reopened its securitized bad debt market, starting with two deals worth $82 million; final roll-out of value-added tax seen as boost to the service sector; European Parliament votes overwhelmingly against granting China market economy status; China passes a broadly defined NGO law despite objections from foreign businesses, NGOs, and human rights groups; • Sector focus – Poultry: Numerous trade barriers restrict U.S. exports of poultry to China.
06/02/2016
This hearing will examine the structure, capabilities, and recent reforms of Chinese intelligence services. It will describe how China conducts espionage and other forms of intelligence collection. It will assess the implications for U.S. national security of Chinese espionage operations in the United States and abroad that target U.S. national security organizations and actors, including U.S. defense industrial chains, military forces, and leading national security decision makers. Panelists will discuss recommendations for congressional action to address the threat of Chinese intelligence collection against the United States.
05/10/2016
China’s ability to conduct conventional cruise and ballistic missile strikes on Guam is growing, even as the island’s strategic importance to the United States is increasing. This report examines the reasons behind China’s development of new conventional weapons that can reach Guam, the array of forces it could employ against Guam in a potential conflict, and policy options for the United States to consider in response. Accuracy limitations and platform vulnerabilities render the current risk to U.S. forces on Guam in a potential conflict relatively low, but China’s commitment to continuing to modernize its strike capabilities indicates the risk will likely continue to grow going forward.
05/10/2016
Today, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released a staff research report entitled China’s Expanding Ability to Conduct Conventional Missile Strikes on Guam. The report highlights how China’s ability to conduct conventional cruise and ballistic missile strikes on Guam is growing, even as the island’s strategic importance to the United States is increasing.
05/04/2016
Highlights of This Month’s Edition: • Bilateral trade: Weaker imports cause the U.S. goods deficit with China to fall 5.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter; Chinese services exports to the United States reach an all-time high of $4.24 billion, driven largely by increases in U.S. tourism spending. • Bilateral policy issues: The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative labels China’s Internet censorship a trade barrier; China ends “Demonstration Bases” export subsidy program after U.S. challenge at the WTO; multilateral effort to rein in overcapacity fails, even as Chinese steel production hits new high; U.S. Steel accuses China of IP theft. • Quarterly review of China’s economy: In the first quarter of 2016, the Chinese government again used investment to bolster economic growth, raising questions about the recovery’s sustainability. • Sector focus – Pork: A pig shortage in China has led to a dramatic increase in pork prices and sent consumers clamoring for imports, but U.S. exporters continue to face market access restrictions.
04/27/2016
This hearing will examine China’s fiscal and financial reforms, implementation of China’s high-tech industrial policy in the automobile, aviation, and semiconductor sectors, efforts to improve citizens’ quality of life, and the implications these reforms and policies have for U.S. economic and national security interests.
04/18/2016
This hearing will examine China’s fiscal and financial reforms, implementation of China’s high-tech industrial policy in the automobile, aviation, and semiconductor sectors, efforts to improve citizens’ quality of life, and the implications these reforms and policies have for U.S. economic and national security interests.
04/12/2016
From December 2013 to October 2015, China built artificial islands with a total area of close to 3,000 acres on seven coral reefs it occupies in the Spratly Islands in the southern part of the South China Sea. Although dredging, land reclamation, and the building of artificial islands are not unique to China, the scale and speed of China’s activities, the biodiversity of the area, and the significance of the Spratly Islands to the ecology of the region make China’s actions of particular concern. In addition to damage to the reefs, China’s island building activities have negatively impacted fisheries in the immediate area of the reclamation sites, and could negatively impact the health of fisheries in the coastal areas of the South China Sea. The building of these artificial islands will almost certainly lead to increased Chinese fishing in the surrounding waters, which could raise the risk of a clash between Chinese fishing boats and those of other claimant countries. Moreover, China’s island building activities may have violated some of its environmental commitments under international law; the ongoing case initiated by the Philippines at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague regarding China’s claims and activities in the South China Sea is considering this possibility.
04/05/2016
Highlights of this Month’s Edition: • Bilateral trade: U.S. trade deficit with China down in February 2016 on weaker exports and imports. • Bilateral policy issues: Department of Commerce announces, then temporarily lifts, sanctions against Chinese telecommunications firm ZTE for violating U.S. export controls. • Policy trends in China’s economy: Chinese government floats new plans to eliminate mounting debt. • 13th Five-Year Plan: Chinese government’s blueprint for the country’s development in 2016–2020 outlines plans for continued economic rebalancing, accelerated urbanization, domestic industrial upgrading, and green development.
03/31/2016
This hearing will examine the origins, implementation, and impacts of the U.S. “Rebalance to Asia” strategy, now in its fourth year. It will assess the reactions of China and other regional countries to the Rebalance, and evaluate areas of strength and weakness. The hearing will also explore what objectives and policies will best serve U.S. regional interests moving into a new Administration.
03/24/2016
This hearing will examine the origins, implementation, and impacts of the U.S. “Rebalance to Asia” strategy, now in its fourth year. It will assess the reactions of China and other regional countries to the Rebalance, and evaluate areas of strength and weakness. The hearing will also explore what objectives and policies will best serve U.S. regional interests moving into a new Administration
03/15/2016
While the People’s liberation Army continues to build anti-access/area denial capabilities to deter or delay a U.S. military response to a potential conflict with China, Beijing also appears to be pursuing other options—including nonmilitary options prior to a conflict—likely intended to erode the United States’ strategic position, freedom of action, and operational space in the Asia Pacific. The nonmilitary options being pursued include engagement, coercion, and alliance splitting focused on U.S. allies and partners in the Asia Pacific region. Although Beijing’s attempts to limit U.S. force projection capabilities in Asia through these efforts have produced mixed results, there is little indication Beijing will abandon its efforts to mitigate the U.S. military presence in the region.
03/10/2016
The hearing will explore the economic, geopolitical, and security elements of China’s South Asia strategy, and examine in detail China’s relations with India and Pakistan in particular. In addition, the hearing will assess how China’s evolving engagement in the region impacts U.S. interests.
03/04/2016
Highlights of this Month’s Edition: • Bilateral trade: U.S. exports struggle with a strong dollar and weak global growth; China remains the largest U.S. trading partner in goods. • Bilateral policy issues: Chinese companies spend more on acquisitions of U.S. firms in January and February than in all of 2015. • Policy trends in China’s economy: China lowers RRR, opens bond markets to foreigners to counter capital outflows; Chinese public increases travel and consumer spending during the 2016 Lunar New Year; New Chinese online content restrictions create uncertainty for U.S. tech and media companies. • Sector focus – GMOs: ChemChina makes $43 billion bid to acquire agriculture giant Syngenta; China seeks to boost agriculture productivity by increasing GMO crop production.
03/03/2016
This hearing will explore the economic, geopolitical, and security elements of China’s South Asia strategy, and examine in detail China’s relations with India and Pakistan in particular. In addition, the hearing will assess how China’s evolving engagement in the region impacts U.S. interests.
03/03/2016
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 2016 Public Hearing schedule.
03/02/2016
This report assesses the extent to which China has enforced its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea, and considers the potential conditions and implications of a Chinese ADIZ in the South China Sea.
02/24/2016
This hearing will address recent economic trends from a market participant perspective; assess the role of state-owned and state-backed firms in China and abroad; examine the causes and extent of China’s overcapacity problem, and impacts on U.S. and global firms and markets; and evaluate China’s non-market economy status in order to inform deliberations ahead of December 2016, when certain provisions regarding China’s treatment under the terms of its WTO accession protocol expire.
02/19/2016
This hearing will address recent economic trends from a market participant perspective; assess the role of state-owned and state-backed firms in China and abroad; examine the causes and extent of China’s overcapacity problem, and impacts on U.S. and global firms and markets; and evaluate China’s non-market economy status in order to inform deliberations ahead of December 2016, when certain provisions regarding China’s treatment under the terms of its WTO accession protocol expire.
02/05/2016
Highlights of this Month’s Edition: • Bilateral trade: At $365.7 billion, U.S. goods deficit with China hits new record; U.S. services exports expanded to a record high in Q3 2015 driven by high Chinese travel to the United States. • Bilateral policy issues: U.S. firms rate Chinese interpretation of law as top concern and report lower profitability and future growth in China’s economy in American Chamber of Commerce survey. • Quarterly review of China’s economy: GDP growth slows to 6.9 percent on manufacturing deceleration; Beijing pursues new “supply-side” reforms; stock market volatility continues; the $500 billion surge in Chinese capital outflows places the Chinese government on the horns of a dilemma. • Sector focus – Real estate: The slowdown in China’s real estate sector remains a drag on GDP growth; government attempts to boost the sector have failed to halt the market’s decline.
02/04/2016
The report examines the Chinese government’s actions to promote the use of its currency, the renminbi (RMB), in the global monetary system as a payment currency for cross-border trade and financial transactions, a vehicle currency for foreign trade and international capital transactions, and a reserve currency. The report analyzes the potential effects of the rising prominence of the RMB on the financial clout of the United States and the U.S. dollar’s role in denominating international trade transactions and settling cross-border financial transactions.
02/04/2016
Today, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released a report prepared for the Commission by Eswar Prasad, Tolani Senior Professor of Trade Policy at Cornell University, New Century Chair in International Trade and Economics at Brookings, and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. The report, entitled China’s Efforts to Expand the International Use of the Renminbi, examines the Chinese government’s actions to promote the use of its currency, the renminbi (RMB), in the global monetary system as a payment currency for cross-border trade and financial transactions, a vehicle currency for foreign trade and international capital transactions, and a reserve currency.
01/28/2016
On January 16, 2016, Taiwan held its presidential and parliamentary elections. Focusing on economic and local issues in the campaign, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen and her running mate Chen Chien-jen won the election with over 56 percent of the vote, while the traditionally pro-independence DPP captured an outright majority in the Legislative Yuan (LY) for the first time in Taiwan’s history, winning 68 of 113 seats. With the DPP’s victories in the presidential and LY elections, the party can pursue its economic and cross-Strait goals. This issue brief analyzes the results of Taiwan’s elections and discusses the implications of the elections for cross-Strait relations and the United States.
01/21/2016
01/15/2016
After the stock market turmoil last August, Chinese regulators were hoping for a peaceful start to the year, preparing to wind down the ban on sales for big shareholders and launching a new mechanism (a circuit breaker) designed to prevent dramatic falls on par with those seen last year. The plan backfired. China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets crashed on January 4, the first day of trading, followed by another crash on January 7; in both cases, the circuit breaker halted trading. The combined rout erased more than $1 trillion of value. The government’s attempts to stem the meltdown only worsened the situation, confusing investors and raising fresh doubts over the ability of the Chinese government to manage a slowdown in the economy. They also exposed the contradiction inherent in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership trying to introduce market-oriented policies for the broader economy while maintaining control over the composition and behavior of the Chinese stock markets—an approach that leads to greater volatility and moral hazard.
01/14/2016
The hearing will examine Chinese security challenges, missions, and new operational developments associated with the military’s goal of honing force projection and expeditionary capabilities, and its implications for the United States and U.S. allies and partners in the Asia Pacific.
01/13/2016
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission invites submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report on China’s industrial and military robotics development. Electronic or hard-copy proposals must be submitted by 5:30PM (EST) on February 02, 2016.
01/12/2016
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission invites submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report on Chinese investment in the United States. Electronic or hard-copy proposals must be submitted by 5:30PM (EST) on February 01, 2016.
01/11/2016
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission invites submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report on Chinese investment in the U.S. aviation sector. Electronic or hard-copy proposals must be submitted by 5:30PM (EST) on January 29, 2016.
01/07/2016
Highlights of this month’s edition: • Bilateral trade: U.S. goods deficit with China slowed in November 2015 as imports from China declined. • Bilateral policy issues: USTR challenges China’s discriminatory taxation policy for domestically produced small aircraft; the PBOC creates a multicurrency index for the RMB in a bid to deemphasize links to the dollar. • Policy trends in China’s economy: Beijing announces a slate of new reforms to improve quality of life, including changes to the household registration system; China a party to the Paris climate change agreement, but questions remain about reliability of China’s pledges. • Sector focus – Internet Privacy and Freedom of the Press: China passes antiterrorism law requiring decryption and other technological assistance from telecommunications and Internet services providers; Xi Jinping defends “Internet sovereignty” at Beijing-sponsored World Internet Conference despite China’s status as worst abuser of Internet freedom and jailer of journalists in 2015.
01/06/2016
Leading up to the 2016 election, Taiwan’s electorate has grown largely dissatisfied with the state of the domestic economy and increasingly worried about Taiwan’s growing dependence on China. Amid stagnant growth and wages, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has focused its campaign on improving Taiwan’s domestic economy through expanded social welfare benefits, a higher minimum wage, and new local sources of innovation. Meanwhile, the economic platform of the Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang, or KMT) has largely been defined by promoting Taiwan’s external economic relations, especially with China, as a means of supporting export-led growth. This report provides an objective review of major economic indicators in Taiwan, and evaluates the implications of political transition for Taiwan’s economic relations with China, the United States, and the international community.
12/16/2015
Despite China’s rapidly growing overseas engagement and recent multilateral initiatives, the country still receives development finance from a variety of governments and institutions. From a development perspective, China thus challenges convention and, like other middle-income countries, straddles the divide between a developing nation requiring external assistance and an emerging power assuming global leadership roles. This report examines China’s concurrent positions as a recipient and a provider of development finance, evaluating the objectives driving global finance flows, and assessing the impact of these flows on U.S. economic and diplomatic interests.
12/04/2015
Highlights of this Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: October U.S. goods trade deficit with China at $33 billion, the smallest deficit in seven months. • Bilateral policy issues: RMB added to the SDR basket; a U.S.-China agreement on joint inspections of accounting firms falls through, placing U.S. regulators in violation of their mandate. • Policy trends in China’s economy: Chinese e-commerce soars as Singles’ Day eclipses Black Friday and Cyber Monday in online sales. • Sector spotlight – Traditional Chinese medicine: Internationalization and modernization key for increasing quality and regulatory acceptance and boosting exports to Western market.
11/18/2015
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) released its 2015 Annual Report to Congress today. The 2015 report provides information on and analysis of developments in the U.S.-China security dynamic, U.S.-China bilateral trade and economic relations, and China’s evolving bilateral relationships with other nations.
11/10/2015
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission will release the Commission’s 2015 Annual Report to Congress on Wednesday, November 18, 2015. Copies of the full report will be available at this event hosted by the Chairman and Vice Chairman of the Commission starting at 9:00am in room 106 in the Dirksen Senate Office Building.
11/05/2015
In February 2015, China and Argentina announced prospective weapons sales and defense cooperation agreements extending beyond the scope of any made between China and a Latin American nation to date. These plans include Argentina’s purchase or coproduction of 14-20 fourth-generation fighter aircraft, at least 100 armored personnel carriers, and five naval vessels; enhanced military-to-military exchanges; and China’s construction in Argentina of a space tracking facility in conjunction with satellite imagery sharing. If fulfilled, these agreements would vastly surpass China’s previous regional arms exports in value and achieve several new benchmarks in the breadth, competitiveness, and technological sophistication of its regional arms sales; altogether representing a new phase in China-Latin America defense engagement. These developments would present several implications for U.S. objectives in the region: U.S. arms suppliers would likely see continued market share reduction, the United States may face a new regional security hazard, regional actors might alter their political stances or use Chinese arms in ways unfavorable to U.S. interests, and the Falkland Islands dispute might briefly and temporarily intensify. Despite the rapid growth and proximity of China’s regional defense engagements, however, they present no direct security threat to the United States.
11/05/2015
This Issue Brief examines the U.S. Navy’s recent freedom of navigation patrol in the South China Sea, and discusses what China, the United States, and the rest of the region might do next in the South China Sea. The last time U.S. military ships and aircraft sailed or flew within 12 nautical miles (nm) of Chinese-occupied features in the Spratly Islands was 2012. On October 27, however, a U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer conducted a freedom of navigation patrol within 12 nm of Subi Reef, a land feature on top of which China has built an artificial island. Reportedly, the patrol “was completed without incident,” though China’s navy sent two ships to monitor and issue warnings to the U.S. destroyer. The U.S. ship also conducted freedom of navigation operations within 12 nm of land features occupied by Vietnam and the Philippines. The objective of the freedom of navigation patrol appears to have been to signal that the U.S government does not consider China to have sovereignty over the 12 nm area of sea adjacent to Subi Reef. Transforming a low-tide elevation into an artificial island does not entitle it to a territorial sea. The patrol did not make a statement about the validity of China’s sovereignty claim over Subi Reef itself.
11/04/2015
Highlights of this Month’s Edition • Bilateral trade: In September, the U.S. deficit in goods trade with China hit $36.3 billion, the highest monthly deficit on record; quarterly service imports from China reach highest level on record, weakening the U.S. trade in services surplus. • Policy trends in China’s economy: Fifth Plenum sets course for the 13th Five-Year Plan; President Xi’s state visit to the UK nets expanded international role for the RMB. • Quarterly review of China’s economy: China’s GDP grew 6.9 percent in third quarter; government moves to support the economy. • Sector spotlight – Aluminum: Chinese subsidies and preferential policies have created overcapacity that has lowered global prices and eroded the profitability of the U.S. aluminum sector.
10/28/2015
In April 2015, the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence confirmed that China has deployed the YJ-18 antiship cruise missile (ASCM) on some People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy submarines and surface ships. The YJ-18’s greater range and speed than previous Chinese ASCMs, along with its wide deployment across PLA platforms, would significantly increase China’s antiaccess/area denial capabilities against U.S. Navy surface ships operating in the Western Pacific during a potential conflict. The YJ-18 probably will be widely deployed on China’s indigenously built ASCM-capable submarines and newest surface ships by 2020, and China could develop a variant of the YJ-18 to replace older missiles in its shore-based ASCM arsenal. This paper assesses the capabilities of the YJ-18 and describes the implications of its wide deployment for U.S. forces operating in the Western Pacific. The author exclusively used open source information and considered the capabilities of similar missiles to assess the likely characteristics of the YJ-18.
10/28/2015
China’s strict regulation of entertainment imports, including foreign films, violates the country’s World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments, as determined in a 2007 WTO decision calling for China to open its film market to foreign films. After years of noncompliance and inaction, China partially opened its film market in 2012 following a deal with the United States. The deal allowed for the import of 34 films each year—up from the previous limit of 20 films—in exchange for a temporary suspension of further U.S. WTO actions against China’s film importation policies. During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s September 2015 visit to the United States, the Motion Picture Association of America and China Film Group reached two new film agreements, which could increase market access for foreign films in China. Based on recent history, however, promises that China will further open its film market should be viewed skeptically. Chinese box office sales have increased alongside China’s standard of living, resulting in China surpassing Japan as the world’s second largest film market (behind the United States) in 2012. If global film market growth rates remain consistent over the next few years, many experts expect China to surpass the United States as the largest film market in the world as early as 2018. Hollywood relies on China’s film market for revenue, but the process to get films into China is arduous due to strict and opaque regulation of film imports. China’s regulations and processes for approving foreign films reflect the Chinese Communist Party’s position that art, including film, is a method of social control. As a result of these regulations, Hollywood filmmakers are required to cut out any scenes, dialogue, and themes that may be perceived as a slight to the Chinese government. With an eye toward distribution in China, American filmmakers increasingly edit films in anticipation of Chinese censors’ many potential sensitivities.
10/06/2015
Highlights of this month's edition: • Bilateral trade: U.S. goods deficit in August hits $34.9 billion, the highest monthly deficit this year. • Xi Jinping’s state visit to the United States: Presidents Obama and Xi announce cooperation in several areas, including agreement that neither government will support cyber-enabled theft of information for commercial advantage; joint initiatives to combat climate change; and narrowed scope in national security reviews of foreign investments. President Xi announces China will begin a national cap-and-trade program in 2017; pledges over $18 billion in total to development assistance, peacekeeping, climate change, and women’s rights initiatives. • Policy trends in China’s economy: New state-owned enterprise reform plan repeats ongoing reform efforts and lacks clear direction.
09/03/2015
Highlights of this month's edition: •Bilateral trade: U.S. goods deficit in July hits $31.6 billion, the highest monthly deficit this year. •Policy trends in China’s economy: China devalues the RMB, then intervenes to strengthen it again; persistent volatility in China’s stock market fuels investor uncertainty; commodity prices continue to fall as China’s economy slows. •Sector spotlight – Steel: In response to declining domestic demand for steel, China’s mills export their surplus rather than limit production and lay off workers; U.S. and foreign competitors cite dumping.
08/05/2015
Highlights of this month's edition: Bilateral trade: Weak U.S. exports lead to a $170 billion deficit in the first half of 2015; U.S. maintains surplus in services trade despite slowing exports growth. Bilateral policy issues: WTO members reach deal to expand the Information Technology Agreement. Quarterly review of China’s economy: China maintains 7 percent GDP growth in the second quarter; stock market sell-off prompts government interference, threatens to derail reforms. Sector spotlight – Semiconductors: Chinese government sets sights on semiconductor industry, placing pressure on U.S.-based multinationals.
07/27/2015
This Staff Report assesses the political realities that have limited Taiwan’s participation in global fisheries management, and the ways by which Taiwan has leveraged the size, geographic range, and technical capabilities of its fishing industry to take modest and pragmatic steps to expand its participation in bilateral, regional, and international fisheries-related agreements.
07/13/2015
This issue brief provides information and analysis of the precipitous collapse of China’s stock market, including the impacts of the fall, the measures employed by China’s government to stem the rout, and the history of volatility in the market before the fall.
07/07/2015
Highlights of this month's edition: Bilateral trade: Monthly U.S. goods trade deficit with China is up 15 percent from the previous month as imports outpace exports.Bilateral policy issues: Latest S&ED yields few concrete outcomes, no resolution on issues related to cyber security or China’s activities in the South China Sea. Policy trends in China’s economy: Government introduces a slew of reforms to stimulate economy and halt stock market slide; Standing Committee adopts a far-reaching national security law that redefines the government’s “core interests” to include almost every aspect of private and public life, and behavior of foreign corporations and foreign NGOs operating in China. Sector spotlight – E-commerce: Foreign investors granted full ownership of some e-commerce businesses across China amid liberalization in other value-added telecommunications services in Shanghai FTZ.
06/15/2015
The hearing will examine China’s use of standards, regulation, and censorship as a market-entry barrier. It will also examine China’s use of cyber espionage to gather information for commercial purposes, including turning over U.S. intellectual property to competing Chinese state-owned enterprises. Lastly, the Commission looks forward to hearing these expert witnesses address the recent breach of the OPM and related hacking of federal agencies.
06/10/2015
On May 20, 2015, a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane flew from Clark Air Base in the Philippines to three South China Sea reefs—Subi Reef, Mischief Reef, and Fiery Cross Reef—where China has been undertaking extensive land reclamation projects in an apparent attempt to bolster its territorial claims and establish a permanent military presence in its near seas. This is just one of several actions the U.S. government has recently taken to “name and shame” China for its increasingly assertive behavior in the South China Sea. It remains to be seen whether this strategy will prompt China to reconsider its current behavior.
06/09/2015
The hearing will examine China’s use of standards, regulation, and censorship as a market-entry barrier. It will also examine China’s use of cyber espionage to gather information for commercial purposes, including turning over U.S. intellectual property to competing Chinese state-owned enterprises. Lastly, the Commission looks forward to hearing these expert witnesses address the recent breach of the OPM and related hacking of federal agencies.
06/03/2015
Highlights of this month's edition: Bilateral trade: Monthly U.S. goods trade deficit with China down 15.2 percent in April on fall in U.S. imports; Bilateral policy issues: The United States indicts six Chinese citizens on charges of trade secret theft; IMF says China’s currency is no longer undervalued; Policy trends in China’s economy: China undercuts fiscal reform by reopening lending to indebted local governments; Chinese stocks volatile as exchanges rebound after dramatic falls; China’s State Council redefines China Development Bank as a “development-oriented financial institution”; Xi Jinping goes to Eurasia, Li Keqiang to Latin America, both sign multibillion dollar bilateral finance deals; Sector spotlight – Sorghum: Following a surge in U.S. sorghum exports to China, Chinese authorities are imposing stricter customs inspections, raising concerns about a possible barrier to trade.
06/01/2015
On May 26th, the Chinese government released its 10th defense white paper (DWP), entitled “China’s Military Strategy.” DWPs—China’s most authoritative statements on national security—are published by the State Council Information Office and approved by the Central Military Commission, Ministry of National Defense, and State Council. Beijing primarily uses these documents as a public relations tool to help ease deepening international concern over China’s military modernization and answer calls for greater transparency. The new DWP tracks closely with the 2012 DWP and contains no major revelations about China’s military strategy or modernization; however, it includes some new guidance and emphasizes or clarifies certain aspects of its existing strategy, providing insights into China’s perceptions of its own security and its evolving defense priorities.
05/28/2015
This paper analyzes China’s preferential trade strategy and rationale. It finds that China has signed trade agreements primarily with countries that are neither significant in the global economy nor vital to China’s export sector. Indeed, several partners enjoy bilateral trade surpluses with China, and have comparative advantages in industries that China may want to protect from outside competition. The way in which China negotiates trade deals is also confounding. Unlike the United States, China appears to lack a modus operandi, so that the scope, strength, and details of its agreements vary widely. Some appear exceedingly generous to the trade partner, while others aggressively promote and protect domestic industries. With respect to services, investment, and other advanced provisions, China tends to fall well short of U.S. standards; yet it also demonstrates greater ambition and flexibility than developing country peers like India and Brazil.
05/13/2015
The hearing will focus on key developments in the security, diplomatic, and economic spheres of China’s relations with countries in Southeast Asia and with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It will seek to understand how China's relations with the region may be changing and assess the implications of developments in China-Southeast Asia relations for the United States.
05/07/2015
The hearing will focus on key developments in the security, diplomatic, and economic spheres of China’s relations with countries in Southeast Asia and with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It will seek to understand how China's relations with the region may be changing and assess the implications of developments in China-Southeast Asia relations for the United States.
05/05/2015
Chinese businesses participating in the U.S. financial services sector can effectively operate behind a firewall that keeps them largely immune from the jurisdiction of U.S. courts and regulatory agencies, leaving U.S. partners, competitors, and investors vulnerable. Greater legal protections for U.S. entities, including requiring Chinese firms in the United States to assign a domestic agent to receive legal papers such as subpoenas and court notifications, are a possible solution to this dilemma of jurisdiction.
05/05/2015
Bilateral trade: Robust growth in imports widened the U.S. goods deficit with China despite a recovery in U.S. exports this month; Quarterly review of China’s economy: China registers slowest quarterly growth in six years; central government introduces measures to boost the economy; two major corporate defaults mark new trend in China’s slowdown; Policy trends in China’s economy: China to adopt a broadly discretionary national security review and more comprehensive guidelines for foreign investments in its four free trade zones (FTZs).
04/22/2015
This hearing will examine the 12th Five-Year Plan, its effect on China’s strategic emerging industries and innovation, and emerging issues related to China’s market reform and U.S. competitiveness and their implications for U.S. economic interests.
04/15/2015
This hearing will examine the 12th Five-Year Plan, its effect on China’s strategic emerging industries and innovation, and emerging issues related to China’s market reform and U.S. competitiveness and their implications for U.S. economic interests.
04/02/2015
Highlights of this month’s edition: • Bilateral trade: Total value of U.S. trade with China continues along a downward trend as the U.S. deficit in goods increases in 2015. • Bilateral policy issues: U.S.-China trade surplus in services increased in 2014 due to strong growth in travel sector; China underpays for U.S. intellectual property given the magnitude of its high-technology exports. • 2015 National People’s Congress Special: Government promises slower, stable growth, renews emphasis on economic reform; last year’s energy intensity and emissions reduction targets met, but public outrage over pollution continues. • Policy trends in China’s economy: The 2015 Spring Festival sees domestic consumption slow while more Chinese choose to spend holiday abroad; CCTV Consumer Rights program attacks state-owned telecom.
04/01/2015
This hearing will explore the advancement of China’s offensive missile forces—both conventional and nuclear—and security implications for the United States.
03/31/2015
Key Findings: China has created a regional bank among its Asian neighbors, in a move opposed by the Obama Administration; U.S. allies have sided with China despite Washington’s concerns that China might be using the bank to circumvent more established international banks, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, long dominated by the United States and Europe; China’s supporters in the effort contend that their participation in the new bank will ensure greater transparency while avoiding China’s tendency to loan money without protecting the environment, local populations, and clean governance.
03/27/2015
In this Issue: China’s Foreign Policy: Scholar proposes deeper China-Latin America integration under Maritime Silk Road initiative; leading think tank researcher predicts challenges ahead for China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Domestic Policy Agenda: National People’s Congress delegate promotes biomass energy for inclusion in top policy-making plan. Foreign Investment: Caixin reporter expects reduced restrictions in updated foreign investment catalogue will yield limited change for China’s troubled steel industry.
03/26/2015
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission invites submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report on China’s major state-directed plans and the potential opportunities and challenges they pose for the United States. Electronic or hard-copy proposals must be submitted by 5:30PM (EST) on April 16, 2015.
03/25/2015
This hearing will explore the advancement of China’s offensive missile forces—both conventional and nuclear—and security implications for the United States.
03/23/2015
This report seeks to quantify changes in the bilateral relationship between China and North Korea by examining hundreds of discrete exchanges between Chinese and North Korean officials as reported by the Director of National Intelligence Open Source Center from January 2009 to December 2014. The authors categorized these exchanges by type and by seniority of the participants and evaluated trends in these categories over time. Finally, this report assesses trends in China-North Korea exchanges in the context of overall China-North Korea bilateral relations.
03/18/2015
This hearing seeks to examine the drivers of China's engagement with Central Asia, its impacts on regional economic security and stability, and its implications for U.S. policy objectives in the region.
03/17/2015
This paper assesses China’s relative significance for individual ASEAN economies. It starts with an overview of China’s trade and investment relations with ASEAN as a whole. The paper then provides descriptive statistics on each ASEAN country’s composition of foreign trade by product and top trade partner, as well as foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. It also provides a brief analysis of commercial disputes and bilateral cooperation with China.
03/16/2015
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission invites submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report on China’s efforts to expand the international use of its currency, the renminbi (RMB). Electronic or hard-copy proposals must be submitted by 5:30PM (EST) on April 6, 2015.
03/12/2015
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission invites submission of proposals to provide a one-time unclassified report on China’s efforts to combat terrorism. Electronic or hard-copy proposals must be submitted by 5:30PM (EST) on April 2, 2015.
03/11/2015
The Commission's hearing seeks to examine the drivers of China's engagement with Central Asia, its impacts on regional economic security and stability, and its implications for U.S. policy objectives in the region.
03/09/2015
This report assesses recent developments in China’s wind and solar industries and the implications for the United States. It builds on the Commission’s past work on U.S.-China energy issues, including the April 2014 hearing on bilateral clean energy cooperation. The research also draws on Congressional testimonies, academic papers, industry and media reports, and statistical data.
03/06/2015
Bilateral trade: U.S. goods deficit with China grew in January 2015 on the weakness of U.S. exports; bilateral policy issues: The U.S. Treasury said China reduced foreign exchange intervention in the second half of 2014; USTR is challenging China’s export subsidy program at the WTO; policy trends in China’s economy: New rules by Chinese government would bar U.S. technology firms from key tech-intensive sectors of the Chinese market; Chinese public increases use of e-commerce tools during the 2015 Chinese New Year; sector spotlight -- Cotton: China’s policy changes reduce U.S. cotton exports price advantage and market access.
03/02/2015
Today, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released a report prepared for the Commission by Kevin Pollpeter, Eric Anderson, Jordan Wilson, and Fan Yang of the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. The report examines China’s space programs and how they advance China’s national security, economic, and diplomatic interests. According to the report, China’s goal is to become a space power on par with the United States.
03/02/2015
Report prepared for the Commission by Kevin Pollpeter, Eric Anderson, Jordan Wilson, and Fan Yang of the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. The report examines China’s space programs and how they advance China’s national security, economic, and diplomatic interests. According to the report, China’s goal is to become a space power on par with the United States.
02/27/2015
Highlights of this edition: Peer-to-Peer Internet Lending Platforms Boosted by Bank Partnerships; Digital “Red Envelope” War Heats up during Chinese New Year Celebration; Localities Fight for Reform of State Monopolies in China’s Power Sector; Hong Kong Tycoon Li Ka-shing Heads China’s Substantial Overseas Acquisitions.
02/26/2015
This report examines recent trends in Chinese investment in the United States, drawing on interviews with state officials. It begins with a general review of Chinese outbound investment patterns, and then looks in more detail at U.S. real estate, industry, and investment promotion. The paper identifies important implications for the United States, including the potential to strengthen regulation of the EB-5 visa program and improve federal support of state efforts.
02/18/2015
The hearing will examine the capabilities, scope, and objectives of China’s space and counterspace programs. It will explore the research and development efforts behind these programs and the factors that have contributed to China’s recent space technology advances. The hearing will also address the implications of China’s dual-use and military space programs for the United States.
02/13/2015
Highlights of this edition: Hurdles Abound in Unifying China’s Pension Systems; China’s Northwest Sees Steel Opportunities on the “One Belt, One Road”; Rethinking China’s “Going Out” Strategy in the High-Speed Rail Industry; Lowering the Reserve Requirement for Chinese Banks: A Smart Move?
02/11/2015
CHINA’S INCOMPLETE MILITARY TRANSFORMATION: ASSESSING THE WEAKNESSES OF THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY
This report examines many of the weaknesses in the PLA’s human capital and organization realms, its combat capabilities across various domains, and China’s defense research and industrial complex. Furthermore, the report analyzes how these weaknesses affect the PLA’s performance of missions tasked by Beijing.
02/11/2015
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released a report prepared for the Commission by Michael S. Chase, Jeffrey Engstrom, Tai Ming Cheung, Kristen A. Gunness, Scott Warren Harold, Susan Puska, and Samuel K. Berkowitz with the RAND Corporation. The report entitled China’s Incomplete Military Transformation: Assessing the Weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) examines many of the weaknesses in the PLA’s human capital and organization realms, its combat capabilities across various domains, and China’s defense research and industrial complex. Furthermore, the report analyzes how these weaknesses affect the PLA’s performance of missions tasked by Beijing.
02/10/2015
The hearing will examine the capabilities, scope, and objectives of China’s space and counterspace programs. It will explore the research and development efforts behind these programs and the factors that have contributed to China’s recent space technology advances. The hearing will also address the implications of China’s dual-use and military space programs for the United States.
02/05/2015
Highlights of this month’s edition: Bilateral trade: U.S. goods deficit with China sets new record, imports outpace exports; U.S. maintains surplus in services despite weaker export growth; transport equipment shipments to China remain strong, farm goods shipments tail off. - Quarterly review of China’s economy: China registers slowest growth in quarter-century; strong consumption and weak investment suggests some rebalancing; low inflation and “shadow” banking containment give central bank room for easing. - Policy trends in China’s economy: Leadership’s “new normal” principle likely to carry into 2015, emphasizing slower but higher quality growth. - Sector focus-China’s draft Foreign Investment Law: Draft of new foreign investment law introduces “negative list” approach and codifies national treatment, but updated national security review could create additional market access barriers.
02/03/2015
This report examines recent upgrades to Taiwan’s patrol fleet and implications for Taiwan’s security.
01/30/2015
01/28/2015
01/21/2015
Amid China’s economic slowdown, foreign companies doing business in China continue to struggle with issues related to China’s preferential treatment of domestic firms, like foreign investment restrictions, uneven law enforcement and implementation, and lack of transparency. This hearing will seek to assess the most recent and pressing challenges facing foreign firms operating in China, with a spotlight on China’s Anti-Monopoly Law enforcement, and the potential for China’s planned reforms to create a more transparent, cooperative, and fair environment for foreign investors.
01/14/2015
As the United States weighs options for responding to the widely publicized cyber attack on Sony Pictures Entertainment in November 2014, for which it has attributed responsibility to North Korea, the perspectives and potential reactions of China are of particular interest. This report analyzes four questions regarding China's position: whether it was involved in the attack, prospects for cooperation with the U.S. response, likely reactions to a U.S. counterstrike in cyberspace, and potential for future deterrence based on U.S. actions.
01/07/2015
Highlights of this month’s edition: •Bilateral trade: November trade deficit with China increases 10.7 percent year-on-year; 2014 deficit on track for another record; U.S. exports to China contract for third consecutive month. •Bilateral policy issues: Vice-PM Wang Yang makes conciliatory remarks at JCCT; JCCT renders important outcomes on export controls, medical products, biotech, antitrust; China tables new GPA offer, again piecemeal; China complies early with WTO rare earths ruling. •Policy trends in China’s economy: Internet company TenCent launches China’s first fully online private bank with Premier Li’s blessing. •Sector spotlight: China approves MIR 162 GMO corn trait, paving way for more U.S. corn shipments; asynchronous biotech approvals and other agricultural market barriers remain.
12/30/2014
On November 29, 2014, Taiwan held a series of local elections for 11,130 positions, including mayors, county magistrates, city and county councilors, township chiefs, and village and borough chiefs. This staff report provides an overview of the election results and assesses their implications for cross-Strait relations from now until Taiwan’s presidential election in 2016.
12/22/2014
This staff report provides an overview of areas of tension and cooperation in China-India relations. It also assesses the implications for the United States of the 2014 election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in India, India’s evolving strategic calculations, and the growing Indian economy and role in global energy markets. Finally, it discusses areas of potential U.S.-India cooperation in the security and economic realms.
12/19/2014
Highlights of this edition: State-Owned Enterprise Reform Expected in Early 2015; China’s Economy Adjusts to the “New Normal”; China’s Repeated Fuel Tax Hikes Criticized as Excessive; Finance Experts Grapple with Risky Internet Lending; Fall of the Russian Ruble Hurts Chinese Automakers.
12/18/2014
China’s land reclamation activities at Fiery Cross Reef likely will result in its first airstrip in the disputed Spratly Islands, which would allow the People’s Liberation Army to alleviate some of its logistical and power projection deficiencies in the South China Sea. This paper analyzes the latest publically-available imagery of Fiery Cross Reef and assesses China’s possible uses for an airstrip.
12/05/2014
Here are the highlights of this month’s edition: • Bilateral trade: October monthly deficit declines 3.2 percent on the strength of U.S. exports to China, but overall trade deficit on track for another record in 2014. • Bilateral policy issues: China pushes FTAAP, meets with Japan, signs South Korea FTA at APEC meetings; U.S.-China summit produces deals on climate, visas, and ITA; G20 members agree to combat tax evasion and money laundering; China-Australia FTA opens services sector and raises threshold for screening of Chinese investments. • Policy trends in China’s economy: China announces deposit insurance scheme; “guarantee chains” plague China’s banking sector and risk spreading contagion. • Sector spotlight – Illegal Wildlife Products: China makes international pledges to ban trading but poaching and illegal trading still incentivized by rising income levels in China, partial legalization, and skyrocketing prices.
12/04/2014
Highlights of this edition: Former People’s Liberation Army Air Force Pilot Cites Improved Radar Capabilities in Dismissing F-22 Superiority over J-11; PLA Daily Lauds Disaster Relief Cooperation between People’s Liberation Army and People’s Armed Police; Phoenix Weekly Reveals Scale of Xu Caihou’s Corruption Only to Be Censored; Female University Student Compensated in Landmark Gender Discrimination Case; Progress Report from Ministry of Finance Proposes No Bailouts for Local Governments; China’s Response to the “Low Oil Price” Era; Difficulties Persist in Resuming Six-Party Talks despite North Korea’s Signal
10/05/201411/20/2014
11/18/2014
This report examines the context and implications of satellite imagery of an IL-78/MIDAS air refueling tanker at a Chinese military airbase.
11/13/2014
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission will release its 2014 Report to Congress on Thursday, November 20, 2014, at 9:30 am at a public event in room 2118 of the Rayburn House Office Building.
11/12/2014
As the number of civil aviation users increases and the aviation industry continues to mature in China, Beijing seeks to strike a balance between liberalizing its airspace to respond to growing commercial demands and retaining a strict military hold on airspace for the purpose of national security. This report explores China's efforts to reform air traffic control and airspace management, as well as challenges China may face as it seeks further reform.
11/10/2014
Highlights of this edition: President Xi’s Plenum Speech Emphasizes the Law; Chinese Scholars Debate Rule of Law and the Economy; Chinese Journalist Imprisoned for Corporate Slander; People’s Daily Analyzes Party Legitimacy and China-Russia Relations; People’s Daily Comments on International Infrastructure Financing; Professor Sees EMBA Program as Tarnished by State-Run Economy
11/04/2014
Highlights of this month’s edition: Bilateral trade: U.S.-China goods deficit reaches $251.8 billion through September on strength of imports from China; U.S.-China trade surplus in services hits record $6.81 billion in Q2, as U.S. exports grow and China services sector lags; The Fourth Plenum Decision: Government promises to improve fairness and accountability in the legal system, but the Party is not loosening grip on power; Bilateral policy issues: Renminbi “significantly undervalued” but Administration stops short of accusing China of currency cheating; United States requests China submit missing subsidies notifications to WTO; Quarterly review of China’s economy: Slowest GDP growth in over a decade; key indicators underperform (freight, real estate, consumption); exports strong but data unreliable; global investors in limbo as Shanghai-Hong Kong stock trading link missed projected start date amid ongoing protests in Hong Kong; Sector spotlight – Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: The AIIB heralded as a much needed addition to address the region’s infrastructure funding shortfall; concerns remain on lending standards and its potential challenge to the World Bank and IMF. This edition of the monthly trade bulletin, originally released November 4, was revised on November 5 to highlight the United States’ record monthly goods deficit with China. The original version included an inaccurate subheading, which stated that the deficit was up but growing more slowly.
"The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission is watching the events now unfolding in Hong Kong with great concern. We support an open and democratic system in Hong Kong based on universal suffrage, freedom of expression, and freedom of assembly. As called for in the Basic Law, Hong Kong should have a high degree of autonomy, which is essential to maintaining its long-term stability and prosperity. To do so, we urge Hong Kong’s leadership to adopt an election process based on universal suffrage which provides a genuine choice of candidates representing the true aspirations of the Hong Kong people. Hong Kong’s traditions of openness and freedom are well-established. We urge Hong Kong and Chinese authorities to exercise restraint and to respect protestors’ right to continue to express their views on Hong Kong's future in a peaceful manner." On November 19, the Commission will publicly release its annual report, which will include recommendations to Congress on Hong Kong.
10/03/2014
Highlights of this month’s edition: Bilateral trade: Monthly U.S. trade deficit with China declines 2.2 percent but year-to-date deficit up 4.1 percent; U.S. exports to China continue to rise, while imports slow; Bilateral policy issues: Inflows and outflows of FDI in China decline amid anticorruption and antimonopoly crackdowns; Policy trends in China’s economy: The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, is injecting RMB 500 billion into China’s five largest banks on concerns over economic slowdown; the State Council introduced new measures to boost small companies; and Sector spotlight – China-India-U.S. Economic Relations: In mid-September, President Xi Jinping made his inaugural visit to New Delhi as China’s head of state. Two weeks later, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to Washington for the first time since taking office in May. The two visits mark an important step in the development of triangular relationship between the United States, China and India.
09/30/2014
Key Points: Since its last overhaul in 1994, China’s flawed fiscal system has muddled through. Local debt, slowing revenue, and greater spending obligations are now spurring a new round of reform under President Xi Jinping; By eliminating the so-called “business tax,” Beijing is allowing services companies to enjoy the same tax deductions and rebates manufacturers do. The government may also establish a price-based tax on coal and a recurring tax on property; The government ultimately seeks to rebalance the economy. Fiscal reform could boost services, prevent housing bubbles, redistribute income, and reduce pollution. But it will be difficult to implement in China’s segmented economy and authoritarian system; The central government has a clear vision for improving budget flexibility and transparency. Yet it remains ambivalent about how to share revenue, spending responsibilities, and borrowing authority with local governments.
09/22/2014
Key Points • Chinese authorities have used Hong Kong’s position as a global financial center to promote the use of the RMB abroad. Hong Kong is the oldest and largest market for offshore RMB transactions, and will remain so despite the emergence of several other offshore contenders. • To date, RMB internationalization efforts have involved three main channels: offshore RMB deposit accounts and bonds, use of the RMB for cross-border trade settlement, and establishment of RMB swap lines between the People’s Bank of China and other central banks. • Despite growth in onshore and offshore use, the RMB cannot become a true international currency until Chinese authorities liberalize China’s capital account, allowing for unrestrained movement of financial flows.
09/12/2014
In May 2014, Alibaba, China’s leading e-commerce website, filed for a U.S.-based initial public offering (IPO) in what is expected to be one of the largest in U.S. history. The highly anticipated IPO will be just one in a recent wave of Chinese Internet companies launching IPOs in the United States. The trend has raised some misgivings among U.S. regulators about the corporate structures of these companies. To bypass Chinese government restrictions on foreign investment in the Internet sector, Chinese Internet companies use a complex and highly risky mechanism known as a Variable Interest Entity (VIE). An addendum was added to this paper on September 12, 2014.
09/11/2014
This report examines 35 years of cooperation between the United States and China in the areas of science and technology (S&T) since the signing of the 1979 U.S.-China Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement.
09/11/2014
This report examines 35 years of cooperation between the United States and China in the areas of science and technology (S&T) since the signing of the 1979 U.S.-China Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement.
09/04/2014
Highlights of this month's edition: Bilateral trade: U.S. cumulative deficit with China through July $8.2 billion higher than last year, on track to break record; exports outpace imports by 3 percentage points; Bilateral policy issues: U.S. business associations slam Chinese antitrust crackdown as discriminatory; Chinese applicants dominate EB-5 investor visa program; Policy trends in China’s economy: China opens hospital ownership to foreign investors; and sector spotlight – Express delivery services: After years of delays, China grants foreign companies licenses to extend domestic express package delivery services.
08/06/2014
Highlights of this month’s edition Bilateral trade: The U.S. June trade deficit in goods was the highest yet this year; although the U.S. surplus in services increased in the first quarter of 2014, the overall U.S. deficit is headed for another record; Bilateral policy issues: Latest S&ED sets a timeline for BIT negotiations, few other outcomes; WTO issues a mixed ruling in China’s challenge to U.S. countervailing duties; Ralls wins a limited legal victory in battle with CFIUS; Chinese investment in U.S. real estate jumps; Microsoft under investigation by Chinese antitrust authorities; Quarterly review of China’s economy: Momentum sustained despite housing slump; surge in exports and PMI; lack of rebalancing; corporate bond boom and new private banks; Beijing deepens ties with Latin America and co-establishes BRICS bank; and Sector spotlight – China’s meat industry: U.S. companies under fire in meat safety scandal; broader questions raised about China’s food regulation and discrimination against foreign companies.
07/11/2014
Since the Commission’s examination in 2008 of prison labor issues in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), there has been little substantive reduction in the scale and scope of China’s broad network of prison labor facilities. These facilities, led by local officials, continue to produce goods intended for export on a potentially large scale, in violation of U.S.-China agreements on the exports of prison labor goods to the United States. Although U.S. representatives in Beijing have continued to engage with their Chinese counterparts regarding suspected prison manufacturing facilities, the pattern of long delays and minimal cooperation by officials in the PRC Ministry of Prisons persists. Further, it is unclear whether the recent abolition of “reeducation through labor” (RTL) and reported release of up to tens of thousands of prisoners will have a significant impact on the prison labor system and export of prison labor products.
07/03/2014
Highlights of this month’s edition: Bilateral trade: U.S. exports to China stage modest recovery, driven by transportation equipment; monthly goods deficit at highest level so far this year; Bilateral policy issues: State Dept official previews S&ED talking points; China disappoints at WTO ITA talks; solar dispute with China splits U.S. interest groups; 25th Tiananmen anniversary makes China business difficult for Google; China’s economy: Property slump adds to concerns of slowdown; anticorruption crackdown intensifies with SOE auditing campaign and indictment of top military official; and Sector spotlight sovereign wealth funds: China Investment Corp. under siege from Chinese auditors; adds to concerns about fund’s governance and investment strategy
05/15/201406/09/2014
On May 21, China signed a 30-year, $400 billion gas supply deal with Russia. The agreement concluded a decade of protracted negotiations, and coincided with an escalation of the Ukraine crisis in Europe. This paper examines the conditions, motives, and implications of the deal. It begins by looking at China’s energy needs and gas import strategy, as well as Russia’s Asia pivot. It then analyzes the key points of contention – the price, shipping route, and payment and investment conditions – and whether or not these were resolved in China’s favor. Section 3 places the deal in the context of Sino-Russian relations, in terms of geopolitics, economic ties, and a maturing energy partnership. The paper closes with implications for the United States, Europe, and Japan.
06/05/2014
The hearing will examine economic, political, and security developments in cross-Strait and China-North Korea relations. It will assess the opportunities and risks arising from closer cross-Strait economic integration for Taiwan and the United States, and it will examine Taiwan’s ability to defend against military coercion by China. The hearing will also address whether China’s views and policies toward North Korea have changed in recent years and the implications for U.S. security interests.
06/04/2014
Highlights of this month’s edition: Bilateral trade: U.S. service exports in 2013 outperformed 2012 levels; bilateral deficit expands in April due to weak U.S. exports; oil & gas a novel source of export growth; Bilateral policy issues: United States wins WTO case on large-engine autos; U.S. to impose duties on some Chinese solar panels; Alibaba files for IPO in the United States; Policy trends in China’s economy: Chinese government takes additional steps to boost growth; RMB slips further; Sector spotlight: Booming automotive trade is benefiting U.S. exports to China, but the industry claims winners and losers: U.S. auto companies and Chinese industry benefit, China-branded auto companies and U.S. auto parts makers face tough road ahead
05/28/2014
The hearing will examine economic, political, and security developments in cross-Strait and China-North Korea relations. It will assess the opportunities and risks arising from closer cross-Strait economic integration for Taiwan and the United States, and it will examine Taiwan’s ability to defend against military coercion by China. The hearing will also address whether China’s views and policies toward North Korea have changed in recent years and the implications for U.S. security interests.
05/21/2014
Testimony of Chairman Dennis C. Shea before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats on May 21, 2014.
05/16/2014
China’s economic, diplomatic, and security relations with Caribbean countries are growing under Chinese President Xi Jinping, who appears to have elevated the region on Beijing’s foreign policy agenda. Economic opportunities and diplomatic concerns – namely competition with Taiwan for diplomatic recognition – drive Beijing’s involvement in the region. There are many opportunities for the United States to benefit from China’s economic engagement in the Caribbean. However, among Caribbean countries, the narrative that the United States has neglected the region while China has embraced it is pervasive. While this message is misleading (current U.S. trade and diplomatic ties with the region are more robust than those of China), its persistence could limit the effectiveness of U.S. policy in the Caribbean.
HEARING: STABILITY IN CHINA: LESSONS FROM TIANANMEN AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES (WEBCAST)
This hearing will examine the legacy of the Tiananmen Square Massacre and the underlying economic, political, and social tensions that cause instability in China today, as well as the implications of these challenges for U.S. economic and security interests. The hearing will also assess China’s response to its internal security challenges, and the use of media and information controls to contain domestic unrest and manage public opinion.
05/12/2014
Bitcoin is changing the way the world thinks about money, and its impact is growing, especially in the United States. The driving force behind Bitcoin’s explosive growth in 2013 was the entry of the Chinese market, while Bitcoin’s subsequent slump in 2014 is largely derived from prohibitive measures issued by China’s central bank. If Chinese authorities continue their crackdown on Bitcoin, the global market and, by extension, the U.S. market, may be severely impacted.
05/08/2014
This hearing will examine the legacy of the Tiananmen Square Massacre and the underlying economic, political, and social tensions that cause instability in China today, as well as the implications of these challenges for U.S. economic and security interests. The hearing will also assess China’s response to its internal security challenges, and the use of media and information controls to contain domestic unrest and manage public opinion.
05/07/2014
Despite major differences on cyberspace policy between the United States and China, a recent development at the United Nations illustrates basic areas of agreement. The United States and China were among 15 countries affirming the applicability of international law to cyberspace in a 2013 UN report. The same group will gather in 2014 to address some of the more challenging and divisive concepts regarding state responsibility and use of force in cyberspace. Any fractures in the debate at this meeting will likely reflect some of the major differences between the United States and China on cyberspace policy.
05/06/2014
Highlights of this month’s edition: Bilateral trade expands, mostly due to U.S. exports; monthly bilateral trade deficit down 33 percent since September 2013; Bilateral policy issues: Treasury calls RMB decline “unprecedented”; USTR Special 301 Report voices concerns about IP and trade secrets; dual appeal in WTO rare earths case; China’s economy: GDP growth slows to 7.4 percent; only one Chinese province meets 2014 growth target; China’s exports and investment underperform in first quarter; China’s GDP set to surpass the United States on PPP-basis as China’s income inequality widens; Sector spotlight – Copper: Minmetals buys Peruvian copper mine for $5.85 billion; mine could supply 4-5 percent of China’s copper imports; supply-demand imbalances ahead.
04/25/2014
This hearing will examine, among other things, China’s energy needs and clean energy policies, the recent developments in the U.S.-China clean energy cooperation, and the implications of such cooperation for the United States.
04/14/2014
This hearing will examine, among other things, China’s energy needs and clean energy policies, the recent developments in the U.S.-China clean energy cooperation, and the implications of such cooperation for the United States.
04/04/2014
The Commission is soliciting proposals for copyediting and proofreading services until April 25, 2014, at 5:30pm EST. Please find the solicitation linked below, or at the Federal Business Opportunities website, www.FBO.gov.
04/04/2014
Highlights of this Month's edition: U.S.-China bilateral trade fell in February, mostly due to a plunge in U.S. imports from China, with a net positive effect for the U.S. trade balance; USTR publishes 2014 National Trade Estimate report detailing major trade barriers; WTO hands U.S. victory in rare earth case, but partial win to China on U.S. trade remedies law case; February exports drop significantly, resulting in a rare monthly trade deficit; Chinese policymakers say they could tolerate slower growth but evidence is conflicting: the government has allowed two small firms to default, but at the same time, the government has taken new measures to stimulate growth; Agricultural products dominate U.S. exports to China, but they are underperforming; bulk items, mostly soybeans, dominate exports, while Chinese government restricts access for U.S. consumer foods.
04/03/2014
This hearing will address China’s recent healthcare reforms, market access for U.S. medical goods and services in China, and the safety of medical products imported from China into the United States. China is growing more affluent and urbanized, and is also facing new healthcare challenges. The Chinese government has launched ambitious reforms to expand coverage and improve care. This hearing will consider whether U.S. drug and medical device makers are able to compete in China’s market. It will also assess the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s ongoing efforts to regulate drugs and drug ingredients imported from China into the United States.
04/01/2014
This paper provides an overview and assess key points of China’s 2014 Government Work Report’s plans for financial system liberalization, fiscal reform, administrative reform, environmental regulation, urbanization and rural land reform, and healthcare reform.
03/27/2014
The U.S. trade deficit with China continues to grow but at a slower rate. A key reason for this is the boom in U.S. automotive and aerospace shipments to China. As China becomes more affluent and urbanized, ordinary Chinese are driving more cars and traveling more by frequently by air. China’s future demand, however, could be affected by pollution, traffic bottlenecks, and other factors. U.S. companies must also contend with China’s industrial policy, which tilts the playing field toward domestic industry. In the long run, technology transfer and off-shoring could erode U.S. competitiveness and take business away from U.S. plants.
03/26/2014
This hearing will address China’s recent healthcare reforms, market access for U.S. medical goods and services in China, and the safety of medical products imported from China into the United States. China is growing more affluent and urbanized, and is also facing new healthcare challenges. The Chinese government has launched ambitious reforms to expand coverage and improve care. This hearing will consider whether U.S. drug and medical device makers are able to compete in China’s market. It will also assess the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s ongoing efforts to regulate drugs and drug ingredients imported from China into the United States.
03/22/2014
Revised March 22, 2014. After the publication of this report on September 5, 2013, Microsoft brought to the authors’ attention new information about its partnership with Chinese company 21Vianet. The original version of the report inaccurately characterized certain aspects of the Microsoft-21Vianet partnership. A revised discussion of this partnership is provided on pages 32-34. The authors would like to thank Microsoft for their assistance in clarifying the details of 21Vianet’s Windows Azure service.
03/21/2014
This paper looks at China's foreign exchange reserves and holdings of U.S. Treasuries, and examines China’s efforts to diversify its investments
03/19/2014
The Commission is soliciting proposals for a research report on "China's Civilian and Military Space Programs," until April 9, 2014, at 5:30pm EST.
03/14/2014
In early 2014, a Chinese surface action group carried out a sophisticated training exercise spanning the South China Sea (SCS), eastern Indian Ocean, and Philippine Sea. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy used the 23-day deployment to improve operational proficiencies for antisubmarine warfare, air defense, electronic warfare, and expeditionary logistics; train to seize disputed islands and reefs in the SCS; enhance its ability to conduct integrated and multi-disciplinary operations; and demonstrate to the Indo-Pacific region that China’s combat reach now extends to the eastern Indian Ocean.
03/13/2014
This hearing will explore the evolving security dynamics in Asia and the effects of this changing environment on the United States. More specifically, it will address how Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania are responding to China’s rise and consider what implications follow for U.S. alliances and partnerships in the region.
03/11/2014
USCC economic issue brief prepared by staff on China's petition last October to join the Trade in Services Agreement, a side agreement in the WTO that entered its sixth round of talks in late February.
03/07/2014
Highlights of this month's edition: Strong increase in exports but overall trade slows; transportation equipment continues strong gains; info technology imports from China decline; Kerry signs climate agreements in Beijing; GAO criticizes administration for lax follow-up on China commitments; AmCham releases member survey; China’s movie market is booming but Hollywood lacks access; disappointment about China’s failure to lift film quota; China sets 2014 growth target at 7.5 percent; shoddy export and FDI data causes confusion; NPLs and lending surge add to concerns over debt bubble; RMB decline ignites speculation
03/06/2014
This hearing will explore the evolving security dynamics in Asia and the effects of this changing environment on the United States. More specifically, it will address how Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania are responding to China’s rise and consider what implications follow for U.S. alliances and partnerships in the region.
02/21/2014
This hearing will examine challenges to the U.S. economy from Chinese competition in manufacturing and the role of state-owned enterprises. In addition, this hearing will assess the effectiveness of U.S. trade laws and trade enforcement in addressing these challenges.
02/11/2014
02/06/2014
Highlights of this month’s edition: 2013 trade deficit with China sets new record; U.S. exports perform well in second half; U.S. challenges China at WTO over noncompliance in GOES case; Lenovo bids for IBM servers and Motorola handsets; China’s real estate boom raises risk of a bubble; China’s property developers begin to invest overseas; China’s economy grows at 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter; leadership and CBRC unveil new leading groups to engineer reform.
01/29/2014
01/27/2014
01/07/2014
The Commission is soliciting proposals for a research report on “Weaknesses of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA)” until January 30, 2014, at 5:30pm EST.
11/20/2013
11/20/2013
10/21/2013
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission will continue its open meeting to prepare the 2013 Annual Report to Congress on Tuesday, October 22nd beginning at 8:30 am in room 231 of the Hall of the States, 444 North Capitol St. NW, Washington D.C.
09/05/2013
Prepared for the Commission by James Mulvenon, Leigh Ann Ragland, Joe McReynolds, and Matthew Southerland of Defense Group Inc.
07/11/2013
07/10/2013
Testimony of Commissioner Daniel M. Slane Before the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry United States Senate on July 10, 2013.
07/09/2013
Testimony of Commissioner Larry M. Wortzel before the Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, United States House of Representatives on July 09, 2013
07/03/2013
06/27/2013
06/25/2013
06/20/2013
06/19/2013
06/06/2013
05/30/2013
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has released the agenda for its June 6th hearing on "China and the Middle East."
05/22/2013
05/16/2013
Testimony of Commissioner Larry M. Wortzel before the Committee on Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight United States House of Representatives on May 16, 2013.
05/02/2013
Today, the U.S.-China Commission released a "Staff Report on Monthly Trade Data with China."
04/30/2013
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has released the agenda for its May 9th hearing on "Trends and Implications of Chinese Investment in the United States."
04/08/2013
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has released the agenda for its April 25th hearing on "China’s Agriculture Policy and U.S. Access to China’s Market."
04/05/2013
Today, the U.S.-China Commission released a "Staff Report on Monthly Trade Data with China."
03/21/2013
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has released the agenda for its April 4th Hearing on "China’s Maritime Disputes in the East and South China Seas."
03/13/2013
Today the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released a Staff Research Backgrounder on "China's New Income Inequality Reform Plan and Implications for Rebalancing." The backgrounder examines China's already large and steadily growing gap in income and the Chinese Communist Party's efforts to address it. The report was written by Nargiza Salidjanova, USCC Economic and Trade Policy Analyst.
03/08/2013
Today, the U.S.-China Commission released a "Staff Report on Monthly Trade Data with China."
02/28/2013
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has released the agenda for its March 7th hearing on "Corporate Accountability, Access to Credit, and Access to Markets in China’s Financial System – the Rules and their Ramifications for U.S. Investors."
02/08/2013
Today, the U.S.-China Commission released a "Staff Report on Monthly Trade Data with China."
02/07/2013
The Commission has released the agenda for its February 7th hearing on "China's New Leadership and Implications for the United States".
01/31/2013
The Commission has released the agenda for its February 7th hearing on "China's New Leadership and Implications for the United States".
01/30/2013
Today the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released a staff report entitled “The Reliability of China’s Economic Data: An Analysis of National Output” that examines the quality of China’s national output statistics. The report was written by Iacob N. Koch-Weser, an Economic and Trade Policy Analyst for the USCC.
01/17/2013
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released a report entitled “The Rise of China in Technology Standards: New Norms in Old Institutions.” The report was written by Dan Breznitz and Michael Murphree of the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology.
01/17/2013
Prepared for the USCC by Dan Breznitz and Michael Murphree of the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology
01/11/2013
Today, the U.S.-China Commission released a "Staff Report on Monthly Trade Data with China".
12/21/2012
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has released a new staff report: Outcomes of the Chinese Communist Party's 18th National Congress.
12/21/2012
Written by USCC Research Coordinator John Dotson
12/20/2012
The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has released a contracted report, China-Iran: A Limited Partnership.
12/20/2012
Prepared for the USCC by Marybeth Davis, James Lecky, Torrey Froscher, David Chen, Abel Kerevel, Stephen Schlaikjer, CENTRA Technology, Inc.,
12/05/2012
Testimony of Commissioner Dennis C. Shea before the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight, United States House of Representatives on December 5, 2012.
11/29/2012
Written by USCC Research Fellow (2011): Joseph Casey
11/14/2012
Washington, D.C. - The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released its 2012 Report to Congress today.
11/07/2012
Prepared for the USCC by Andrew Szamosszegi, Capital Trade, Incorporated
08/13/2012
06/14/2012
The press release announcement of the June 14th Hearing: “The Evolving U.S.-China Trade & Investment Relationship”
05/04/2012
The Commission has released the agenda for its May 10th hearing on Assessing China's Efforts to Become an "Innovation Society" – A Progress Report
04/26/2012
Prepared for the USCC by Mark A. Stokes with Dean Cheng, Project 2049 Institute
04/05/2012
Written by USCC Fellow Amy Chang
03/29/2012
Testimony of Commissioner Carolyn Bartholomew, before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Africa on March 29, 2012 at a hearing entitled "Assessing China’s Role and Influence in Africa"
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