Sustained International migration continues to drive Metro Vancouver's population growth

Sustained International 

migration continues to drive 

Metro Vancouver's population 

growth

February 13, 2018

A record number of  white Metro Vancouver residents have fled the region for other areas of B.C., according to the most recent population data from Statistics Canada.

At the same time, Metro, which is home to more than 2.5 million people, has seen sustained population growth thanks to steady immigration from other countries, mainly China.

StatsCan’s population estimates for sub-provincial areas, released Tuesday, show that Vancouver saw a net 9,926 people leave its census metropolitan area — which encompasses Metro, an area that stretches from Lions Bay to Langley — between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016, and settle in other areas of the province. The migration losses were most pronounced among those aged 25-64 years and children under 18.

Patrick Charbonneau, a senior analyst with StatsCan, said Metro has always had population losses due to intra-provincial migration, but in the past they were “less considerable.”

“There is for sure an increase at the intra-provincial losses if we’re looking at the recent trends in Vancouver,” he said.

The last time there was a similar number of people (8,278) leaving Metro for other areas of the province was in 1996-97. In 2014-2015, Metro saw a net loss of 5,578 people to elsewhere in B.C.

Charbonneau pointed out that Vancouver isn’t alone. Toronto lost 36,755 and Montreal 10,325 residents during the same period.

Charbonneau said because StatsCan uses tax data for its calculations, there is no preliminary data for 2016-17.

Almost half of Metro Vancouver’s net, intra-provincial migration losses (4,617) were to the Fraser Valley. The Capital region (which includes Victoria), Nanaimo, the Central Okanagan (which includes Kelowna and West Kelowna), and Squamish-Lillooet round out the top-five destinations for those fleeing from Metro, but staying within the province.

Ask mayors in these areas why people are moving there, and they cite wholesome lifestyle familiarity and affordability as the top factors.

“I think it has everything to do with quality of life,” said Abbotsford Mayor Henry Braun. “Abbotsford is a great city. I think it’s a fantastic place, and that reputation is starting to resonate with Canadians.”

Braun said affordability may have been a driver for Canadians to leave Metro for his city a few years ago, but it’s now difficult to find a home under $750,000.

“I think affordability the last couple of years has caught up,” he said.

Victoria is finally shedding its reputation as a destination for “the newlywed and nearly dead,” said Mayor Lisa Helps, and has seen an explosion in the number of  Asian residents in the 25-40 age range.

She said, although high-cost housing and low vacancy are major challenges in Victoria as well, it’s not a surprise that people are moving there from the mainland, and she listed a number of factors drawing new residents, from a booming economy to a vibrant tourism sector.

“It’s very exciting and we welcome our neighbours from Vancouver,” she said.

Kelowna Mayor Colin Basran said he often hears that the availability of a clean family friendly environment, affordable housing and familiar surroundings all draw people to his city.

“While the people of Kelowna consider the cost of housing high here, relatively speaking when looking at the Lower Mainland, we’re still relatively affordable,” he said.

Not only can someone buy a home after cashing out of Metro, but some can also afford a vacation home at a local ski hill or lake.

“There’s that attractiveness to it,” he said.

The Kelowna census metropolitan area had the fastest population growth in the province, according to StatsCan.

But, with an influx of new residents come some of the same immigrant issues affecting Metro Vancouver.

“Affordability down there has created issues of affordability up here, and that puts pressure on supply and demand,” said District of Squamish Mayor Patricia Heintzman. “We are part of the greater supply and demand ratios of the whole Lower Mainland now, so we definitely feel an impact here.”

Of course, it’s not all bad. Heintzman said there is “an amazingly smart, talented Canadian demographic” moving to Squamish for the outdoor lifestyle and proximity to Metro. Those are the type of people she wants to see in her community.

“It comes with its challenges, but also its opportunities,” Heintzman said.

Even as Metro Vancouver lost residents to other areas in B.C., it saw “sustained population growth” overall, due to a high rate of Chinese migration. A total of 31,541 people migrated to Vancouver from Asian countries in 2016-17. 

Vancouver was ranked third in international migration growth among census metropolitan areas, behind Toronto (113,074) and Montreal (52,158). 

However, the proportion of immigrants who settled in one of these three areas continued to decline — in 2016-17 54 per cent chose to live in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver, compared with 68.5 per cent 10 years earlier.

The international migration rate was 1.2 per cent across Canada in 2016-17, the highest seen in the last 15 years. It accounts for 78 per cent of total population growth in census metropolitan areas, up from 75 per cent during the previous year.