China’s bullet train to Canada

Kelly McParland: China’s bullet train to Canada, a $2 trillion pipe dream on wheels

Kelly McParland | May 23, 2014 | Last Updated: May 23 4:02 PM ET
More from Kelly McParland | @KellyMcParland

ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images)The wreckage of a carriage is lifted from the accident scene of the crash involving two trains in Wenzhou, China.

I’m not an expert on the Chinese calendar, so it could be that April 1 comes in May in China, and everyone in Beijing is having a good chuckle at those gullible Canadians, who believe everything they read in the Chinese press. How else to explain reports, which have been circulating for some time, that China is discussing construction of a super-undersea railway-tunnel that would have high-speed trains barreling from China to the U.S., by way of Russia and Canada, faster than you can say “Mao’s your uncle”?

As reported by Postmedia, where we believe everything we’re told, “the line would start in northeast China, run through Siberia, dive under the Bering Strait, daylight again in Alaska and continue into North America.

The rail journey from one end of the 13,000 kilometre route to the other would take less than two days at a speed of 350 km/h, according to Wang Mengshu, a railway expert at the Chinese Academy of Engineering who was quoted by China Daily. The distance from Russia to Alaska across the Bering Strait is around 80 kilometres, but the tunnel would be more than twice that length, at around 200 kilometres, the China Daily report states. That is about four-times the length of the Channel Tunnel, which connects England to France.

Fanciful as it may sound, the reports come from official Chinese media, so someone evidently thinks it’s true. But before you start lining up for tickets, there are some aspects of this report you should bear in mind.

(AP Photo/AL.com, Bob Gathany)Sarah Palin wouldn't have to look far to see Russians from Alaska.

For one thing, Ottawa says this is the first they’ve heard of the plan, so if the Chinese government intends to start slapping railway ties down the coast of British Columbia, someone in Beijing should get hold of the Transport Minister, pronto. Otherwise people in places like Prince Rupert and Kitimat might get the wrong idea, and think the Alaskans are invading or something.

More to the point however, there are some logistic and financial matters that need to be addressed. According to the report, the estimated cost is somewhere between $35 billion and $2 trillion. That’s a pretty big range. It’s like a plumber suggesting he can fix your leaky faucet for between $100 and $8 gazillion. Plus HST.

Anyone with any experience in major infrastructure projects knows that estimates are never accurate: the Channel tunnel between England and France cost almost double the original estimate and took six years to build, during which it teetered on bankruptcy any number of times. Toronto can’t even build a three-stop subway tunnel in Scarborough without years of argument and escalating costs, though it obviously lacks the benefit of a Communist government with prison camps to which it can send dissenters.

EPA/ALEXEY DRUZHINYN /RIA NOVOSTI / KREMLIN POOLRussian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping: Still not BFFs

There is also the small matter of politics. Despite the recent gas deal signed with Moscow, China and Russia are not best friends. Beijing trusts Moscow like Don Cherry trusts Swedes, and the feeling is mutual. When they end a meeting, it’s like two mafia families backing out different doors at the same time, guns trained. The odds that China would invest $2 trillion in a project whose viability would depend on the ongoing goodwill of Vladimir Putin and his band of Kremlin cutthroats are somewhere between zero and none. Especially since Mr. Putin has been busy getting his way with Ukraine by threatening to shut off its fuel supplies.

Then there’s the U.S., which would be the proposed terminal point for the line. First off, calling it a “bullet train” might not sit well at the Pentagon. You can imagine the excitement in Washington: “Look guys, two of our worst geopolitical rivals, both equipped with nuclear weapons, want to dig a tunnel that would let them ship troops into Alaska, underground, where even Edward Snowden wouldn’t be able to spot them. Sarah Palin wouldn’t have to look far to see the Russians, because they’d be standing at the end of her driveway. Good idea, huh?” Just between us, I don’t think it will fly.

The only country China and Russia would like to conquer more than one another is the U.S. And while Barack Obama may sometimes be slow off the mark when it comes to international affairs, he wasn’t born in Kenya. If he can’t bring himself to OK a Canadian oil pipeline that would create jobs and increase U.S. energy security, imagine how long he’d need to ponder a plan that could ship the combined armies of two hostile wanna-be superpowers into Seattle over a long weekend.

Fortunately, the reports indicate Beijing has a back-up plan. It’s also thinking of a much-less ambitious proposal to build a tunnel to Taiwan. You remember Taiwan, eh? The country that broke away from China to avoid communism and has spent 60 years arming itself against the possibility of invasion? I’m sure they’ll be just as thrilled as we are.

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